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Squawk / 31 May 2016 at 8:29 GMT
Consultant in Derivatives and Commodity Specialist / Manor Derivatives(Consulting) Ltd
United Kingdom
Hey FX, you seeing anything out there?? Seem a bit bereft of ideas at the mom lol
31 May
fxtime fxtime
DAX/FTSE/SP500 look ready for a stop hunt move imho. But they are just scalps to the short side.
Gold should impulse to $1230 but really the underlying is still bearish to £1175-$1180 before a rally to $1400....yesterday was obviously a public holiday pretty much everywhere so we need the frothiness of long weekend adjustments (and month end) to clear out.
Soft commods is becoming crowded grrrr
Options look the best way at the moment imho as we can build some theta stuff.
31 May
fxtime fxtime
cable could well drop to 1.42000 though !!
31 May
fxtime fxtime
No evidence for entering the cable trade yet....but underlying monthlies say imho short !
31 May
Neil D Neil D
yes have looked at the cable chart in some detail........gut tells me the upside is v limited as i think this rally has built in a Remain vote, so only downside potential from here
31 May
Neil D Neil D
also seemed v damaging move o/n!
31 May
fxtime fxtime
LOL funny enough by pure fluke I made 45pips overnight on cable as had legacy limit order outsanding on the account so a lucky start to the week for me there :-)
31 May
Neil D Neil D
am a bit disgusted that am not aboard the sugarloaf express.......gonna be tricky to go long here when spec poz is so huge
31 May
fxtime fxtime
Yeah I too been watching sucre and opted to stand back as the risk seems to outweigh rapid returns let alone roce....prefer to sit and wait as reckon we will see a shake out fwiw. Rarely does your sugarloaf express travel in a linear fashion....view it more like the British Rail stop/go shuttle ''express''
31 May
fxtime fxtime
FWIW my short on XOM remains !
31 May
Neil D Neil D
yes indeedy, with comms always have to keep an eye on those specs.......trade and hedgies like to flush the pack every now and then lol
31 May
Neil D Neil D
Exxon?? or is that oil etf?
31 May
fxtime fxtime
Exxon...if I short #/CL the margin required is high compared to pounds per point revenue where as a vanilla cfd short on Exxon is cheap with a higher pp revenue and no expiry dates to be concerned about :-)
31 May
fxtime fxtime
You may have started a new vocabulary for traders...being flushed LOL
31 May
Neil D Neil D
you mean along with 'shown the pan', 'obliterated' and other such nomenclature!
31 May
Neil D Neil D
Bollingers in ftse v flat and ranges small.............and as we at the upper line now makes sense to be light short I think
31 May
fxtime fxtime
I suspect if we rally to 2109-2110 region on the SP500 cash market today its probably a good extreme for a short in the current run seen recently if you see what I mean? But this would be a day order only scenario...as for vocab we used to regard trading the Russell akin to being rinsed such was the speed of market moves that even a washing machine would struggle to keep pace LOL.
I am already short FTSE from the break of the open range this morning!
31 May
fxtime fxtime
Also DAX fwiw as described above....usually on bolly stuff I tend to tighten the std dev to 1.8 and apply not to the market price but RSI ...it often gives a useful marker for establishing option trades !
31 May
Neil D Neil D
yeah makes sense.........lack of impulsion over several days trading smacks of low mometum here, and revert to midline.......which is around 6140 on daily
31 May
fxtime fxtime
Yeah although I will halve the trade on the round number 6200 and then look for the 6146 was my target...mean reversion as you say. Interestingly the eurusd is showing some divergences in near and far dated contracts. We might reach a nadir low late this month then hard rally !!
31 May
Neil D Neil D
am not strong on euro opinion at the mom.....chart looks a mess tbh.........there, have jumped in n shorted ftse too!
31 May
Neil D Neil D
it would have ben better if eur had cleared 1.1720 on futures as then we could see a clear A-B-C correction on weekly.........but as it didnt am non-plussed a bit
31 May
Neil D Neil D
and right now its touching the bottom of a upward channel, so more likely to bounce IMHO
31 May
fxtime fxtime
simplistic chart fwiw...hope it makes sense? Gotta take the dog out so chat later....my st Bernard has nil patience grrrrrr so gotta go !
31 May
fxtime fxtime
You tracking the trannies and RUT? They aren't joining the big party for new year highs and new wave high break outs.
31 May
kom75 kom75
fxtime, if you want to sell sp500 at 2110 level, what would be your target. do you want to buy at this level?
31 May
fxtime fxtime
risk is greatest to the downside imho so no I wouldn't buy here...it certainly can rally further but probabilities are that we will have some market profit taking and thus a dip. As for a target....not sure as if we do fall to say 2000 today then we will probably get a 5pt rally minimum tomorrow ! (The first Tues of the month quirk etc etc).
31 May
kom75 kom75
so do you still expect 50% or 100% pullback from last week rally?
31 May
fxtime fxtime
50% and then trail hard.
31 May
kom75 kom75
thanks
31 May
Neil D Neil D
US numbers not as buoyant as the pundits were expecting
31 May
fxtime fxtime
Market sentiment however remains surprisingly slightly bullish though !! Lets see how long it can last...I am not chasing this move. My trades remain :-)
31 May
Neil D Neil D
Agreed
31 May
fxtime fxtime
Neil....an update on my DAX trade....my clients want a better ROCE usually so I am covering now to concentrate on other markets :-)
I never really like trading the DAX this late in the day for scalp purposes to be honest.
Easy profit none the less.... and hope you made too?
31 May
fxtime fxtime
LOL....Neil you should be happy with the FTSE too ?
A good day after all for us all :-)
31 May
Neil D Neil D
yes its trying to break down from that consolidation area on the hourly, so from a measuring viewpoint, might be v interetsing........too early to say yet, but will stick with it
31 May
Neil D Neil D
S&P close to taking out cloud support on the 60min
31 May
Neil D Neil D
Interesting article from Steve Pope.........cable overvalued from every angle it would seem to suggest
31 May
fxtime fxtime
Yeah...totally agree. Cable has done well for us today....I assume from this mornings comments that you too positioned short etc.....we need another bout of weakness on SP as you say but the current time of day is usually sideways to bounce to 7pm BST before a continuation down-wards.
31 May
Neil D Neil D
be good to take out 2088, then we could see day/key reversal
31 May
fxtime fxtime
Totally agree.
31 May
Neil D Neil D
Looking good on those indices!
31 May
fxtime fxtime
As this is the first Tuesday of the month we may have a 5pt bounce above the close level tomorrow but currently my preference is the yellow line on the attached
31 May
fxtime fxtime
Think between us today has been a reasonable and profitable day ...time for a wine I think.
Thx for your thoughts/commentary mate.
31 May
fxtime fxtime
Oops forgot to ask....did you trade XOM? nearly a $1.00 down now yeahh :-)
01 June
fxtime fxtime
Update on XOM...still falling now a further 70c down at time of posting ....I am reducing my stake size now to bank a hearty profit from yesterday and today. My average b/e remains in profit obviously and I expect fwiw a further drop....as usual stop adjusted etc etc :-)
01 June
fxtime fxtime
My trailing stop has been hit on XOM so now totally flat for +20 on the remaining trades. Not a problem as good profits booked earlier......fwiw I will re-assess tomorrow as a potential trade re-entry but no need for me to rush back in.

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