Today's edition of the Saxo Morning Call features the SaxoStrats team discussing the continuing weakness of the US dollar as commodity prices recover ground and in the wake of key US equity indices hitting all-time highs Thursday.
Squawk / 26 November 2012 at 0:05 GMT
Blogger / MoreLiver's Daily
From Mr. Henri Myllyniemi:
1) Europe’s step to a solution
Europe and especially Greece are kept in a tight leash until the German elections – but Spain surprises! In Q1 it is still assumed that the EUR 100bn would be enough, but the rise in non-performing loans forces Spain to request EUR 300bn. That is too much and someone leaves the club. Those who buy stocks anticipating EUR 3-4 trn quantitative easing are sorely disappointed and experience a market shock lasting couple of months in the Q3. The EMU breakup lows will not be seen again, as markets then turn bullish.

2) Showdown over Senkaku
People’s Republic of China decides it owns the islands and the only question is will US accept the ultimatum. US thinks through n-1 scenarios, including China selling all its US Treasury paper. The markets panic expecting this. US backs off and tells Japan to give up the islands. Markets return to normal, except some large banks have doubled their annual profits, while some are bankrupt.
Juhani Huopainen Juhani Huopainen
These are from a friend of mine: but my 2 cents: I don't think France will do anything until forced to do so - market pressure does it eventually. When, how and what - I don't know. The US-China wildcard does not rely on China actually doing anything - instead, it rests on the possible market perception that it could be possible. That's all that is needed.


The Saxo Bank Group entities each provide execution-only service and access to permitting a person to view and/or use content available on or via the website is not intended to and does not change or expand on this. Such access and use are at all times subject to (i) The Terms of Use; (ii) Full Disclaimer; (iii) The Risk Warning; (iv) the Rules of Engagement and (v) Notices applying to and/or its content in addition (where relevant) to the terms governing the use of hyperlinks on the website of a member of the Saxo Bank Group by which access to is gained. Such content is therefore provided as no more than information. In particular no advice is intended to be provided or to be relied on as provided nor endorsed by any Saxo Bank Group entity; nor is it to be construed as solicitation or an incentive provided to subscribe for or sell or purchase any financial instrument. All trading or investments you make must be pursuant to your own unprompted and informed self-directed decision. As such no Saxo Bank Group entity will have or be liable for any losses that you may sustain as a result of any investment decision made in reliance on information which is available on or as a result of the use of the Orders given and trades effected are deemed intended to be given or effected for the account of the customer with the Saxo Bank Group entity operating in the jurisdiction in which the customer resides and/or with whom the customer opened and maintains his/her trading account. When trading through your contracting Saxo Bank Group entity will be the counterparty to any trading entered into by you. does not contain (and should not be construed as containing) financial, investment, tax or trading advice or advice of any sort offered, recommended or endorsed by Saxo Bank Group and should not be construed as a record of ourtrading prices, or as an offer, incentive or solicitation for the subscription, sale or purchase in any financial instrument. To the extent that any content is construed as investment research, you must note and accept that the content was not intended to and has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such, would be considered as a marketing communication under relevant laws. Please read our disclaimers:
- Notification on Non-Independent Invetment Research
- Full disclaimer

Check your inbox for a mail from us to fully activate your profile. No mail? Have us re-send your verification mail