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Kay Van-Petersen
Saxo's global macro strategist Kay Van-Petersen considers the repercussions of US president Donald Trump’s escalating trade war with China.
Squawk / 12 October 2016 at 17:42 GMT
Hello Juhani,

Can you help interpreting the FOMC minutes please?
Juhani Huopainen Juhani Huopainen
sorry, very, very late answer.

1) Fed is divided - several members want to hike, but several would prefer waiting a bit. The hawks are scared that unless the Fed hikes, it loses "credibility" (not sure it has much left to lose), while the doves see the economy both in US and globally pretty weak, and would prefer waiting as long as possible to get as many people back in workforce as possible.

2) The implied odds of a rate hike are getting close to the max rate I expect them to reach before the meeting. The Fed is getting ready to hike in December, but data could deteriorate too much for the hike. Essentially, the chance of the Fed not hiking = chance of getting bad enough economic data.

3) I expect hawkish guidance in the November 2 meeting's statement, followed by a rate hike in December.
Juhani Huopainen Juhani Huopainen
4) We will probably see, after the current sentiment of "Fed will hike", a wave of "the Fed won't hike in December", followed by a new build-up of hike expectations just ahead of the December meeting.

That would mean in the coming weeks the USD will top out, as hike expectations begin deteriorating, and when the hike expectations get low together with the USD, both will again begin rising in tandem. Jobs reports are probably key swingers, as is the US presidential election.
asousa27 asousa27
Thanks Juhani, perfect as usual!
Patto Patto
this is another example of this site being hours behind the times .........
Patto Patto
Sorry Juhani. I mis-read this. My comment was in error


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