Hansen: Oil and gold in 2014Ole Hansen
After three years of losses on the Dow Jones UBS Commodity Index, will we see a turnaround in 2014? It all depends on whether demand picks up, according to Ole Hansen, Saxo Bank's Head of Commodity Strategy. He considers what might happen in the oil and precious metals sectors next year.
Crude oil, says Ole, is likely to trade in a new lower range. Supply growth will outstrip demand growth for the first time in years. That will require some response from OPEC and notably Saudi Arabia. How they deal with that will be the key question in 2014.
Gold was pretty friendless in 2013 and that's not likely to change in a hurry, according to Ole. It's been rallying for twelve years but global conditions suggest that there are no immediate reasons to see the gold price rise significantly.