Thomas Kiely
After technology stocks fell further last week, Serge Berger, better known as The Steady Trader, is looking for relative strength in other sectors.
Article / 31 May 2012 at 9:16 GMT

Greek election: Outcome sensitivity - plus 10 stocks to consider

Peter Bo Kiaer Peter Bo Kiaer
Strategist & Equity Analyst / Private

Greeks will vote again on June 17, and the results will help determine the future of the euro. Will the new government back austerity and a bailout?  

Below I've created a chart with the results of the most recent Greek poll: closer to the election there will not be any official polls, but expect large professional investors to make their own and invest accordingly.

In table 1 I have lined up the parties with enough votes to enter the parliament. The conservative and pro-bailout New Democracy is in the lead with 23.4%, just an inch ahead of the leftist anti-bailout party Syriza with a backing of 22.1%.  The third “large” party is the social democratic pro-bailout PASOK backed by 14.3%.

Greek Election Poll 17 June

Now we need to take a careful look at the Greek system.  While there are 300 seats in the parliament, 50 are reserved for the largest party, leaving 250 seats to be split according to votes. I've translated the poll above to possible numbers of seats in the chart below.  I've added 50 seats next to New Democracy, as this is the largest party in the poll. 

 Greek Poll June election

 If the poll holds, then 55% of the votes would back a bailout, while 45% would be against.

 Pro or Anti Bailout backing

The result is VERY sensitive to changes in backing, as the reinforced proportionality (the 50 mandates) goes to the largest party, and the two most popular parties are on opposite sides of the bailout issue. At the moment 9.85m Greek voters are eligible and at the May 6th election 65% turned up to use their right to influence.

Taking these numbers in connection with the poll, then only 42,000 votes would have to switch from New Democracy to Syriza to change the results entirely. 

10 stocks to consider
If the new Greek government backs the bailout package, there might be some opportunities on the Athens exchange. Most analysts have lost interest in Greek stocks, and this makes my screener less sophisticated, as the usual numbers to tweak are not available. But anyway, using the Saxo Stock Screener, I have extracted stocks with little net debt, as debt can be dangerous at the moment. Secondly, I selected stocks which had positive earnings last year shown as the net income margin. This is not a guarantee for earnings in 2012, but it gives a flavour. As an-add on, I show the Price Earnings ratio for 2011 and the performance in 2012.

Some of the stocks are very small in market cap terms after steep declines, but I have included them anyway. See table 2.

 Greek stock screening
I have written two previous articles on investing in Greece:

  1. Invest in Greece
  2. Greek stocks – 10 shares to look at



The Saxo Bank Group provides an execution-only service and all information provided on is solely for general information. When trading through your contracting Saxo Bank Group entity will be the counterparty to any trading entered into by you. does not contain (and should not be construed as containing) financial, investment, tax or trading advice or advice of any sort offered, recommended or endorsed by Saxo Bank Group and should not be construed as a record of our trading prices, or as an offer, incentive or solicitation for the subscription, sale or purchase in any financial instrument. Saxo Bank Group will not be liable for any losses that you may sustain as a result of any investment decision made in reliance on information which is available as part of the or as a result of the use of the Any information which could be construed as investment research has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such should be considered as a marketing communication. Furthermore it is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research. Please read our disclaimers:
- Notification on Non-Independent Investment Research
- Full disclaimer

Show latest activity
Sorry, there was a problem communicating with the servers. We are working hard to solve this. Please try again later.
Oops! There was a problem communicating with the OpenAPI Portfolio service.
Oops! There was a problem communicating with the OpenAPI History service.
Oops! There was a problem communicating with the OpenAPI Reference service.
Oops! There was a problem communicating with the OpenAPI Root service.
Oops! There was a problem communicating with the OpenAPI Trading service.
Sorry, there was a problem communicating with the Financial Calender servers. We are working hard to solve this. Please try again later.
Check your inbox for a mail from us to fully activate your profile. No mail? Have us re-send your verification mail