Squawk / 30 September 2016 at 6:51 GMT
Good morning, Nadia! Want to ask you as the great expert of russian economics - given the events occurring in Russia can you share your vision of ruble's behavior and what levels it can reach this and next years?
Nadia Kazakova Nadia Kazakova
Hi, My guess is that with the Urals oil at $45-$55 per barrel, USD:RUB would be probably at around 65-55 level. I would apply it both to the rest of 2016 and 2017.

We know that the central bank will start buying USD if the Urals oil rises above $55/bbl (probably to cap USD:RUB above 50). We also know that the central bank wants a stable rouble throughout the next three years.

I think there is an expectation of a weaker rouble in late November-early December as the central bank prints roubles to cover seasonally large budget deficit.

Downside risk for the rouble (except the oil price, other external events): 1) escalation in Syria or Ukraine and additional sanctions, 2) weak economic data and larger than expected budget deficit, 3) a banking crisis.

Consensus (as of mid-September) points to USD:RUB of 60 at around $50/bbl Urals ($52/bbl Brent). http://www.rbc.ru/finances/13/09/2016/57d7d8dd9a79477673222d3f. Not sure about the time-frame.
FXtrade1 FXtrade1
Thank you, Nadia, for your opinion.


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