Video

John J Hardy
Saxo Bank’s head of FX strategy John Hardy takes a closer look at trends and moves in today’s forex charts, including EURUSD, USDJPY, AUDUSD, and EURSEK.
Squawk / 24 May 2017 at 19:29 GMT
Gold, see what is about to happen? Cycles are aligning like clock work...
2y
Morris Morris
Welkom! What is about to happen Johan?
2y
Sahin Sahin
same here, you have placed correct vision to guess 1285 run, which was pretty awesome. but i couldn't read the cycle from the graph you've shared.
2y
Morris Morris
Sahin take a 10 year graph or so $1250 - $1270 is critical long term resistance. If not broken then $1250, $1230, $1210, $1190 & $1170 in the short term. Look of clues on technicals for confirmation. There are technical factors for and against the moves hence watch for clues on technicals! Thanks
2y
Sahin Sahin
Thank you Morris. and indeed, i also follow 10 year graph and we are at critical levels at daily chart to break / or not to break.... But could not read if John's "cycles" points out to a break or vice versa, failed to break ressistance and retreating into 1170$ - the signs are not enough to decide yet (at least for me) i guess : )
2y
Morris Morris
Lets hear what the cycles or Gann's is saying? It is said Gold is for trading we may have to trade what we see and if Fibonacci is anything to go by, down may just be the trend in the short term. Lets wait to Johan?
2y
Sahin Sahin
Agreed, consensus is to wait Johan : ) his theory for 1285 bull run was remarkable : )
2y
Johan Berntorp Johan Berntorp
There will be no rush if one does want further confirmation. It appears we might have a epicentre third wave bull run coming. The cycle readings are telling me that would be the most plausible outcome. Looking at the Gann wheel daily cycles keep hitting 180 degree relations from top to low on intermediate trends. Even if I wanted to be bearish I couldn't, sorry :)
2y
Johan Berntorp Johan Berntorp
@Sahin you know it wasn't me, this guy named Gann came up with this stuff. I have just studied his stuff a lot...sometimes I misread and it backfires, however at least one can have very tight stops and trade with extraordinary R/R
2y
Johan Berntorp Johan Berntorp
As long as the May 11 low holds intact I think we are heading for 1469...
2y
Sahin Sahin
thanks for your input Johan. I agree with you. i am on the bull side for xauusd as well. my rationale behind this is a bit complicated, but in the end, we are on the same page . let's see then :) Have a good day ahead
2y
Morris Morris
Thanks Mates. It still has the potential to break $1265 - $1280. If it does in the short term I will be taking a position. However a stronger Dollar and Weaker US Equity market may complicate the picture.
2y
Morris Morris
We are seeing the first steps!
2y
Johan Berntorp Johan Berntorp
If my analysis is correct it should just keep shugging higher, so depending on how one want to play it there be time and price left to grab...ideally volatility should decrease a bit.
2y
Johan Berntorp Johan Berntorp
Concerning weak USD supporting Gold as such I think that is one load of BS. Gold and it's trend is not dollar dependent. I mean, if dollar tanks 1 % towards a basket of currencies the price of gold should go up by 1 % all thing equal, but what happened to price in Euros etc...it stood still in that case so...what was the true trend then? Up of flat? Saxo has gold in Euros and Dollars, look at those...when did the trend turn? The real answer from my perspective, they turned at the same time, even though in fact they didn't...:) Once things turn to the worse again sometime in the future the price wise will likely make different peaks but the true trend turn at the same time...my thoughts and my bubble. Time rules price...
2y
Morris Morris
Yes! The waiting may be over! What is your take Johan? Sahin are you still there?
2y
Johan Berntorp Johan Berntorp
I am "perma bullish" so not challenging myself on this one now. Sometimes one just has to believe. Since catching third waves is the essence of trend following and too much analyzing might get me astray will just stick to my pivots and look for higher prices going forward.
2y
Morris Morris
Talking about third wave! Please point to me where you believe it has started?Or you could be kind and plot me your wave analysis or proposal? The area we are at is now very key!
2y
Johan Berntorp Johan Berntorp
Hi! Well, this is either super bullish or wrong but the R/R is quite decent if one would like to try to catch the larger swings and trends. Every circle is a wave 1 of lesser degree and squares are wave 2 of lesser and lesser degree. As long as we make higher highs and higher lows as well as declines are shorter in time then declines we can assume corrections are smaller degrees and that this thing has upside potential. There is a chance, even if not a 100 % or even 50 % but that's why one should diversify and use stops...even though the market ought to bounce here I think maybe this cycle need more time to make a low and will take a complex structure before it kick-off which is why the final square is a bit to the right.
2y
Morris Morris
A game of strategy! A combination of Fibs, RSI and Stochastics.
2y
Morris Morris
The levels I note on the 25th May as support are now tested followed by mini rallies. Lets see what will unfold?

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