Short term
Trade view / 12 January 2018 at 0:01 GMT

GBPUSD uptrend persists within Rising Wedge pattern

Managing Director / Technical Research Limited
New Zealand
Instrument: GBPUSD
Price target: 1.3644
Market price: 1.3540

There is no economic data of significance out of the UK today so GBPUSD will be all about two major data points out of the US: retail sales and the Consumer Price Index. 

The inflation number will have the most impact on the dollar. Analysts expect the annual core rate to crawl up from 1.7% last month to 1.8% as at the end of December. 

However, yesterday's below forecast PPI number casts some doubt.

Given the weakness of USD of late the CPI numbers would have to beat expectations to generate a rally. Heading into this event, fed funds futures are pricing in a 68% chance of a March rate hike by the FOMC. The probability has remained steady all week.

Management and risk description

Sterling continues to advance within a protracted Rising Wedge pattern or a C-Wave Diagonal Triangle, in Elliott Wave parlance (refer Daily and Weekly Charts below).

In the short term, support at 1.3500/1.3460 probably holds today, to yield the next rally toward 1.3615 and then 1.3655.


Entry: Today Only: Sterling is seen as a Buy around the 1.3500 level (only until 1.3560 resistance is cleared).

Stop: 1.3459, initially

Target: 1.3646

Time horizon: allow a few days 

GBPUSD daily chart (click to expand)
GBPUSD  Daily Chart
GBPUSD weekly chart (click to expand)
Source: Both charts, ThomsonReuters 

— Edited by Adam Courtenay

Non-independent investment research disclaimer applies. Read more
A compiled overview of Trade Views provided on is found here
marran marran
seems to have just taken off Max, i have just moved my stop loss to break even
Morris Morris
Any similarities to the moves in EUR/USD?
seas seas
Nice trade.
sutiani sutiani
Entry: Today Only: Sterling is seen as a Buy around the 1.3500 level .....(only until 1.3560 resistance is cleared).You mean if buy around 1.3500 level not done,but the price first going up break1.3560..cancel trading( or going enter buy 1.3560 stop loss still 1.3459)..Thank you ,mr.Max


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