Trade view /
12 January 2018 at 0:01 GMT
There is no economic data of significance out of the UK today so GBPUSD will be all about two major data points out of the US: retail sales and the Consumer Price Index.
The inflation number will have the most impact on the dollar. Analysts expect the annual core rate to crawl up from 1.7% last month to 1.8% as at the end of December.
However, yesterday's below forecast PPI number casts some doubt.
Given the weakness of USD of late the CPI numbers would have to beat expectations to generate a rally. Heading into this event, fed funds futures are pricing in a 68% chance of a March rate hike by the FOMC. The probability has remained steady all week.
Management and risk description
Sterling continues to advance within a protracted Rising Wedge pattern or a C-Wave Diagonal Triangle, in Elliott Wave parlance (refer Daily and Weekly Charts below).
In the short term, support at 1.3500/1.3460 probably holds today, to yield the next rally toward 1.3615 and then 1.3655.
Entry: Today Only: Sterling is seen as a Buy around the 1.3500 level (only until 1.3560 resistance is cleared).
Stop: 1.3459, initially
Time horizon: allow a few days
GBPUSD daily chart (click to expand)
GBPUSD weekly chart (click to expand)
Source: Both charts, ThomsonReuters
— Edited by Adam Courtenay
Non-independent investment research disclaimer applies. Read more
A compiled overview of Trade Views provided on TradingFloor.com is found here