Today will bring some clarification about whether yesterday's moves in bond and stock markets will continue the same way. When it comes to data there is not much on the agenda that potentially could influence markets strongly.
Short term
Trade view / 04 July 2016 at 2:23 GMT

GBPUSD offers potential for corrective bounce

Managing Director / Technical Research Limited
New Zealand

Bank of England Governor Mark Carney has indicated his preference for an easing of monetary policy sometime over summer but we will have to wait until the BoE’s policymaking Committee meets on July 14 to see how much support he has. 

Markets assume a cut to the 0.50% bank rate is a done deal. With no news on that front likely this week, attention for GBPUSD traders will turn to Friday’s jobs report out of the US. After last month’s shocker anything could happen, but expectations are of a return to the previous monthly average of around 190,000. Anything wide of that mark will prompt a USD-driven move in GBPUSD. 

Meanwhile, markets are pricing very little chance of a rate hike by the Federal Reserve this year.

Management and risk description

Sterling has digested the initial shock of “Brexit day” and with market sentiment still predominately bearish, while holding near support around the 1.3230 level, there is potential for a decent corrective recovery for GBPUSD.

From an Elliott Wave perspective, I am anticipating an “irregular” corrective structure to develop from last Monday’s 1.3120 low. This would enable a rally back toward the low 1.3600s, en route to the mid/late 1.3800s over coming days (see daily chart below).

A loss of 1.3230/1.3200 however would herald a swift retest of the 1.3120 low, then the resumption of GBPUSD’s medium-term downtrend toward 1.2850 (see weekly chart below).


Entry: bought GBPUSD at market (1.3278).
Stop: 1.3224, initially. 

Target: 50% at 1.3604 and 50% at 1.3841.

Time horizon: allow several few days for targets to be met.

GBPUSD daily chart (click to expand)
EURGBP daily chart

Source: ThomsonReuters  

GBPUSD weekly chart (click to expand)

Source: ThomsonReuters. Create your own charts with SaxoTrader; click here to learn more   

— Edited by Gayle Bryant

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Non-independent investment research disclaimer applies. Read more
05 July
sutiani sutiani
Good morning Max...bought GBPUSD (1.3281) stop loss today still 1.3224??..thank you
05 July
Max McKegg Max McKegg
Stop now at 1.3229
05 July
sutiani sutiani
Thank you..Max
06 July
Gennady Gennady
Sounds too good to be true..


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