Video

John J Hardy
Saxo Bank’s head of FX strategy John Hardy takes a closer look at trends and moves in today’s forex charts, including EURUSD, USDJPY, AUDUSD, and EURSEK.
Squawk / 27 June 2018 at 5:45 GMT
Partner at 3 C ANALYSIS / 3cAnalysis
United Kingdom
GBPUSD - Capped by Key Average, points lower
Contrary to yesterday's forecast, Monday’s failure at the 13 day line proved more important than the day’s downside rejection. So, trading Tuesday was dominated by a setback from that average – although the resulting downside was also limited, by Thursday’s Marabuzo line. But although this does add a note of caution our studies are assessed as bearish.
We look to Sell in the 1.3220/25 area and also at 1.3245
The stop is 1.3280 bid.
Targets 1.3193, 1.3172 and 1.3136
Closes 4pm GMT
1y
Are you sure? Are you sure?
Alan,thanks. What about usd chf?
1y
AlanCollins AlanCollins
Only one call on here per day. sorry
1y
KS2011 KS2011
Thanks Alan
1y
Are you sure? Are you sure?
Shall we still go on the position at stop loss .9931? Or close the positionwith loss?
1y
AlanCollins AlanCollins
USDCHF was yesterdays trade idea. Closed at 4om LOndon time as usual
1y
marran marran
i have just sold at 1.3230 so fingers crossed as its looking a little bullish at the moment
1y
Are you sure? Are you sure?
What about usd chf?
1y
alki alki
BoE Gov Mark Carney is about to be speaking in less than 1 h 30 min.
1y
JVKNL JVKNL
@ Marran: Lucky you i sold at 23
1y
JVKNL JVKNL
@ Alki: Lets pray then.
1y
JVKNL JVKNL
@ Marran: definitely looking bullish
1y
David12 David12
better to enter after BoE speech
1y
marran marran
still a lot of hope, but the BoE speech will probably make or break this trade
1y
IL IL
options expiry should help this trade today- they could push the dollar up. I'm still missing to see a lower range in eurusd where the most options expires today
1y
marran marran
hope you are right IL
1y
David12 David12
@marran: hope so
1y
marran marran
looking at the number of options and the various prices I'm finding it hard to see a trading strategy tody IL
1y
IL IL
marran- eurusd has visited the higher range already, and just look at the lower ranges and their volumes: 1.1580-85 (1.2BLN), 1.1600 (2.4BLN), 1.1625 (3.3BLN)........

1.1650 (1.6BLN), 1.1675 (700MLN), 1.1690 (2BLN), 1.1700 (400M),,,,, I guess it will be something at 1,1600- 1620 or under at 10 am NY
1y
marran marran
well im short eurusd so i hope you are right
1y
AlanCollins AlanCollins
Now looking to reduce short at 1.3200/02 area. Not 1.3193. Stop lowered to 1.3245 and the sell rally cancelled.
1y
IL IL
og it goes quite well now, but still can be very volatile
1y
marran marran
i have taken my money for now
1y
JVKNL JVKNL
Ok Alan thanks. I bought everything back and almost covered my yesterdays losses. Tomorrow....................:)
1y
IL IL
and could be very good if eurusd will go under 1,1600, then we know the direction :-)
Thursday JUNE 28:
USD/JPY
strike 110.00 amount is USD 1.7bn
EUR/USD
strike 1.1640 EUR amount 1.1bn
1.1700 1.0bn
Friday JUNE 29:
1.1600 1.3bn
1.1700 1.3bn
1y
marran marran
IL great call today!
1y
marran marran
IL if tomorrows strike on eurusd is 1.1640 and we are bellow that they will try and move the market back up to that price or will they sell it for more profit if they are short?
1y
JVKNL JVKNL
Very good today Alan :)
1y
marran marran
HI IL I have just realized that the strike price is the price they need to make a profit but i assume if they are on the right side of the strike price they will make money. so if it keeps moving away from the price before the option time or towards it the chances are they are trying to move the market for a short time to make more money
1y
IL IL
off course the technical analysis and EW matters too , not only the price of the option expiration.... But option expiry helps to define where the market returns to if there is a substantial amount of the options in play. For example 4 hour support in eurusd today is at 1,1575, so it can happen that the price will reach this level,before it turns back to 1,1640 tomorrow.Unless something big and unexpected happens to prevent it....
1y
marran marran
Hi IL do you think we will see a push to cover 110.50 in the usdjpy its not a massive contract but the price is close?

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