Relevant articles for you


Ian Coleman - First 4 Trading
Ian Coleman of PIA-First explains in a technical analysis of charts why he is looking at a countertrend trade in EURJPY.
Day trade
Trade view / 07 July 2016 at 12:32 GMT

GBPCAD bounce may just be a correction

FX Trade Strategist /
Instrument: GBPCAD
Price target:
Market price:

The GBPCAD downtrend line has been tested often in choppy trading following the Brexit vote but it has maintained its integrity. GBPCAD touched 1.6692 on the news that at least three commercial property funds were suspending trading and following Bank of England governor Mark Carney’s hints of additional easing.

GBPCAD has since rebounded back to the downtrend line which may be a selling opportunity.
FX markets have spent the past three days in a “risk-off” environment. Yesterday’s larger-than-expected draw-down in US weekly crude stocks as reported by the American Petroleum Institute, may have helped shift risk sentiment to a more positive outlook. That shift may be validated later today if the EIA crude stocks reports shows the same size of drawdown.

Today’s Ivey PMI report, although volatile, may provide additional support to the Canadian dollar.
The bearish GBPUSD outlook and an improved risk tone argues that today's  GBPCAD rebound is merely a correction and a revisit to week’s low is likely.
Management and risk description  

There are a lot of risks to this trade. USDCAD is in an uptrend and while trading above 1.2900, the current USDCAD selloff is merely a correction. GBPUSD is vulnerable to huge price swings which can trigger the stop.

The trade is vulnerable to weaker than expected Canadian data. GBPCAD has already moved substantially exposing the stop loss on this trade to a profit taking rally . 

Trade idea parameters

Entry: Sell ½ position of GBPCAD at market (currently 1.6870) Balance at 1.6930 
Stop: 1.6962
Target: 1.6610 (76.4% Fibonacci and Fibonacci retracement of April 2013–July2016 range
Time horizon: 3 days

GBPCAD 30-minute with stop loss highlighted
 Source: Saxo Bank 

GBPCAD 4-hour with downtrend channel
 Source: Saxo Bank 

GBPCAD 5-year daily with moving averages and Fibonacci target
 Source: Saxo Bank 

— Edited by Clare MacCarthy

Non-independent investment research disclaimer applies. Read more
Michael O'Neill Michael O'Neill
UPDATE: This trade idea worked out rather well. Some times a little luck is all you need. The modestly better-than-expected Canadian data, as dodgy as it is spooked this weeks class of USDCAD bulls who are all hoping that the EIA data doesn't lead to further USDCAD selling this afternoon.

In reality, I believe that the range for the past 24 hours was merely pre-payrolls position jockeying and not much else.

Nevertheless, when the FX gods smile upon you, it is good to smile back.

Close the trade at the current market (1.6725)and book a 0.0145 point gain for a few hours effort.

Note: the second sell order was not filled.
fxtime fxtime
Good call...and thx :-)


The Saxo Bank Group entities each provide execution-only service and access to permitting a person to view and/or use content available on or via the website is not intended to and does not change or expand on this. Such access and use are at all times subject to (i) The Terms of Use; (ii) Full Disclaimer; (iii) The Risk Warning; (iv) the Rules of Engagement and (v) Notices applying to and/or its content in addition (where relevant) to the terms governing the use of hyperlinks on the website of a member of the Saxo Bank Group by which access to is gained. Such content is therefore provided as no more than information. In particular no advice is intended to be provided or to be relied on as provided nor endorsed by any Saxo Bank Group entity; nor is it to be construed as solicitation or an incentive provided to subscribe for or sell or purchase any financial instrument. All trading or investments you make must be pursuant to your own unprompted and informed self-directed decision. As such no Saxo Bank Group entity will have or be liable for any losses that you may sustain as a result of any investment decision made in reliance on information which is available on or as a result of the use of the Orders given and trades effected are deemed intended to be given or effected for the account of the customer with the Saxo Bank Group entity operating in the jurisdiction in which the customer resides and/or with whom the customer opened and maintains his/her trading account. When trading through your contracting Saxo Bank Group entity will be the counterparty to any trading entered into by you. does not contain (and should not be construed as containing) financial, investment, tax or trading advice or advice of any sort offered, recommended or endorsed by Saxo Bank Group and should not be construed as a record of ourtrading prices, or as an offer, incentive or solicitation for the subscription, sale or purchase in any financial instrument. To the extent that any content is construed as investment research, you must note and accept that the content was not intended to and has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such, would be considered as a marketing communication under relevant laws. Please read our disclaimers:
- Notification on Non-Independent Invetment Research
- Full disclaimer
- 沪ICP备13028953号-1

Check your inbox for a mail from us to fully activate your profile. No mail? Have us re-send your verification mail