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Garnry: Oracle results will likely disappoint

Peter Garnry
The technology company Oracle is posting its latest results. Despite a slight increase in last quarter’s profits, its share price fell. So what should investors expect this time round? Saxo’s Peter Garnry warns that the company will disappoint, as low organic growth, witnessed over the last two years, continues.

Garnry says Oracle is a story of two tales. On the one hand, the share price has outperformed the market and is up 50% since last summer. On the other, he says there is a real slowdown in the business. Its underlying growth rate has been negative for several quarters and in the quarters where it has been positive, it has been so by only a few percentage points.

The technology company has been sticking with convention and following its strategy of acquiring other firms to compensate for its low growth rate. There are rumours that it is trying to buy MICRO Systems for USD 5 billion.

But despite this strategy, Peter Garnry doesn’t think this a good short-term bet. “Our quant model has a modest 5 percent return model so it doesn’t sound like much,” he says. He thinks there will therefore be short-term disappointment when results are released later.


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