Article / 21 November 2012 at 11:28 GMT

FX Trend Snagger Model: going long EURJPY, GBPJPY

John J Hardy John J Hardy
Head of FX Strategy / Saxo Bank
Denmark

This is a special update to the FX Trend Snagger Model due to the very special conditions in JPY crosses at the moment:

We went long 45k EURJPY (1 unit, rather than normal 2 units, based on 100k EUR account size) at 105.402 and placed a stop at 104.29 offered

We went long 34k GBPJPY (1 unit, rather than normal 2 units, based on 100k EUR account size) at 131.014 and placed a stop at 129.44 offered

Explanation for deviating slightly from model's parameters here:

  • The original signals both came on a sharp move within a very choppy range after a signal in the opposite direction proved unprofitable. Markets have been choppy of late and it looked like caution was warranted in seeking a better entry level. But there was no pull-back, so we are going long on the break higher that is holding into its second day.
  • We are only trading 1 unit of each position because, with the model already short EURUSD and GBPUSD, adding both long EURJPY and GBJPY in full size would simply make the model's overal positioning amount to one overall very large synthetic USDJPY long. As well, considering the magnitude of the recent move, a slightly wider than normal stop is also warranted, a further argument for reducing size. Of course, if the EURUSD short is stopped out, the synthetic USDJPY long will be reduced.

See the model account's positions and orders below:

tsnagger_PO

 

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