Optimism from Australia's central bank drove Chinese shares sharply higher overnight, with investors looking to the Aussie statement as a proxy for bullishness on the mainland economy.
Article / 27 November 2014 at 13:01 GMT

FX Noon: Opec looming large as markets seek direction

Director / Accumen Management
United Kingdom
  • Thanksgiving slows down market activity
  • Encouraging employment figures for Germany
  • Opec conference outcome eagerly anticipated
By Ken Veksler

As was widely expected, today is turning out to be a very quiet market day indeed.
With the US off for Thanksgiving and little by way of data out, the market remains thin and rather uninterested.

The standout event was due to be European Central Bank president Mario Draghi speaking in front of the Finnish parliament. However, the text for his speech was released well ahead of the event itself and the Q&A session that followed was a muted affair. 

Despite his apparent break of both rank and silence during the enforced “quiet” period ahead of next week's ECB meeting (by uttering further nonsense regarding the potential for sovereign quatitative easing), the market didn’t pay too much attention and the move lower in EURUSD was only good for around 30 points, half of which has already been given back.

Germany's unemployment rate touched a record low of 6.6% in November, stressing the gap in labour market conditions between Germany and its Eurozone partners. Photo: Getty
Elsewhere, German inflation and unemployment data have been seen, with the latter showing marked improvement and a significant decrease in the numbers of unemployed. The inflation data admittedly hasn’t left anyone particularly elated, but still, at least Germany is ticking along.

The biggest news on the day still awaits us as far as the Opec press conference this afternoon, after the all-day meeting currently being held in Vienna. The market is looking for a binary outcome;  it either announces production cuts or it doesn't. My money is on no change to production and potential for further downside in oil and weakness consequently in the CAD.

The bottom line is, if Opec were not in a rush to do anything until now, I can’t envisage anything prompting it to take action today.

Keep an eye on gold and CAD in the aftermath of the 3pm (London) press conference as they’re going to be the biggest likely movers.

I maintain the short CADCHF position but must admit will be looking for an exit closer into the weekend and the Swiss referendum.

It will remain quiet today, folks and there really isn’t too much to be made of levels in crosses today.

The AUDUSD has potential to run higher once again after initial consolidation of last night’s move, but I wouldn’t expect to see it too much higher than 0.8610/00.

The EURUSD, otherwise, will probably hover around the 1.2500 level simply waiting for someone to push it around but in the absence of market participants.

As such, helmets on and good luck out there today.

-- Edited by Kevin McIndoe

Ken Veksler is director of Accumen Management.

nelsenkoff nelsenkoff
This comment has been redacted


The Saxo Bank Group entities each provide execution-only service and access to permitting a person to view and/or use content available on or via the website is not intended to and does not change or expand on this. Such access and use are at all times subject to (i) The Terms of Use; (ii) Full Disclaimer; (iii) The Risk Warning; (iv) the Rules of Engagement and (v) Notices applying to and/or its content in addition (where relevant) to the terms governing the use of hyperlinks on the website of a member of the Saxo Bank Group by which access to is gained. Such content is therefore provided as no more than information. In particular no advice is intended to be provided or to be relied on as provided nor endorsed by any Saxo Bank Group entity; nor is it to be construed as solicitation or an incentive provided to subscribe for or sell or purchase any financial instrument. All trading or investments you make must be pursuant to your own unprompted and informed self-directed decision. As such no Saxo Bank Group entity will have or be liable for any losses that you may sustain as a result of any investment decision made in reliance on information which is available on or as a result of the use of the Orders given and trades effected are deemed intended to be given or effected for the account of the customer with the Saxo Bank Group entity operating in the jurisdiction in which the customer resides and/or with whom the customer opened and maintains his/her trading account. When trading through your contracting Saxo Bank Group entity will be the counterparty to any trading entered into by you. does not contain (and should not be construed as containing) financial, investment, tax or trading advice or advice of any sort offered, recommended or endorsed by Saxo Bank Group and should not be construed as a record of ourtrading prices, or as an offer, incentive or solicitation for the subscription, sale or purchase in any financial instrument. To the extent that any content is construed as investment research, you must note and accept that the content was not intended to and has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such, would be considered as a marketing communication under relevant laws. Please read our disclaimers:
- Notification on Non-Independent Invetment Research
- Full disclaimer

Check your inbox for a mail from us to fully activate your profile. No mail? Have us re-send your verification mail