Clive Lambert - FuturesTechs
Clive Lambert is looking to short AUDUSD at 0.7677 with a stop above 0.7700. His targets are 0.7510 and 0.7440, the latter being the mid-September low/bounce.
Article / 06 October 2016 at 14:09 GMT

FX Board: USD trying to spread its wings

Head of FX Strategy / Saxo Bank
  • USD follows late-Wednesday dip with rally today
  • Greenback gains ground against commodity dollars
  • Tomorrow's nonfarm payrolls key for USD, Fed

Gold and silver
Precious metals are rapidly falling out of favour as the US dollar 
gains ground on renewed rate hike expectations. Photo: iStock

Key developments in FX today

  • The greenback picked up the rally impulse again today after a very modest dip in places  late yesterday and early today, with new local highs etched in USDJPY, while NZDUSD poked to new lows and EURUSD tiled back lower, even if still within the recent tight range.
  • A modest rally attempt in sterling was quickly wiped away with a fresh bout of selling, as GBPUSD set new lows for the cycle and EURGBP new highs.
  • The commodity dollars were all lower against the greenback today, CAD interestingly so, given the fresh highs in oil prices and a very strong Aug. Building Permits number.
  • Gold tumbled to new lows and was not far from the next interesting round figure and Fibo (the 38.2% of the entire rally from the $1,050/oz area lows to $1,375/oz area highs) near $1,250/oz. 
  • Silver has also tumbled well below the key 18.00 area  support and could be headed to a test of $16.50/oz, the 61.8% Fibo of the rally sequence from the multi-year low below $14.00/oz to the $21.00-plus high at $16.50/oz.


EURUSD is one of the lowest beta pairs to the market moves, as the interest in a potential European Central Bank taper keeps the euro bid while strong US data has done the same for the dollar. 

Nonetheless, something has to give way here soon, with the downside technical case a bit more clearcut given the many tests of the 200-day moving average. 

Perhaps tomorrow's important US data will offer a clue either way.


Create your own charts with SaxoTraderGO click here to learn more

Source: Saxo Bank 


The USDJPY rally has taken out the Ichimoku cloud for the first time in nearly a year and this could lead to the establishing of a new range toward 105-107.50, provided tomorrow's US jobs report doesn't trigger a trainwreck in fresh USD long positions as rising US yields are likely an important coincident indicator for further upside here. 

Source: Saxo Bank 

AUDUSD softening again today, but with so much treacherous two-way traffic recently, it's tough to accept the locally bearish signals unless the pair develops more pronounced downside momentum and perhaps cuts through the last Fibo's in the 0.7550/00 zone. 

Note the 200-day moving average slowly ascending toward the recent low near 0.7445.

Source: Saxo Bank 

USDCAD keeps springing back despite high oil prices; a test of the 1.3250/75 zone in the coming sessions is not likely to hold a fourth time and is the key trigger for bullish hopes back toward 1.3750 or higher.

Source: Saxo Bank 

At the moment $1,250/oz is the next focus and we nearly got there today. Below that, not much in the way of support until $1,172-ish, the 61.8% Fibo of the $1,050 to $1375-plus rally sequence.

Source: Saxo Bank


Silver has taken out the vitally important $18.00/oz area and this could mean a dive all the way to $16.50/oz if the USD remains bid and precious metals out of favour. 


Source: Saxo Bank

— Edited by Michael McKenna

John J Hardy is head of FX strategy at Saxo Bank 
Download document

FX Board for Thursday, October 6, 2016

06 October
AlexF AlexF
Hi John USDCHF looks as well to break out of channel. If we do get a strong NFP tomorrow which of USDCHF or USDJPY would you see gaining most ?


The Saxo Bank Group entities each provide execution-only service and access to permitting a person to view and/or use content available on or via the website is not intended to and does not change or expand on this. Such access and use are at all times subject to (i) The Terms of Use; (ii) Full Disclaimer; (iii) The Risk Warning; (iv) the Rules of Engagement and (v) Notices applying to and/or its content in addition (where relevant) to the terms governing the use of hyperlinks on the website of a member of the Saxo Bank Group by which access to is gained. Such content is therefore provided as no more than information. In particular no advice is intended to be provided or to be relied on as provided nor endorsed by any Saxo Bank Group entity; nor is it to be construed as solicitation or an incentive provided to subscribe for or sell or purchase any financial instrument. All trading or investments you make must be pursuant to your own unprompted and informed self-directed decision. As such no Saxo Bank Group entity will have or be liable for any losses that you may sustain as a result of any investment decision made in reliance on information which is available on or as a result of the use of the Orders given and trades effected are deemed intended to be given or effected for the account of the customer with the Saxo Bank Group entity operating in the jurisdiction in which the customer resides and/or with whom the customer opened and maintains his/her trading account. When trading through your contracting Saxo Bank Group entity will be the counterparty to any trading entered into by you. does not contain (and should not be construed as containing) financial, investment, tax or trading advice or advice of any sort offered, recommended or endorsed by Saxo Bank Group and should not be construed as a record of ourtrading prices, or as an offer, incentive or solicitation for the subscription, sale or purchase in any financial instrument. To the extent that any content is construed as investment research, you must note and accept that the content was not intended to and has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such, would be considered as a marketing communication under relevant laws. Please read our disclaimers:
- Notification on Non-Independent Invetment Research
- Full disclaimer

Check your inbox for a mail from us to fully activate your profile. No mail? Have us re-send your verification mail