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Article / 11 October 2016 at 14:36 GMT

FX Board: USD trying to press higher across the board — #SaxoStrats

Head of FX Strategy / Saxo Bank
Denmark
By John J Hardy

See attached FX Board PDF for our technical notes of interest. The most interesting developments are highlighted below as we choose among the most compelling few chart developments today.

EURUSD breaking down

EURUSD finally breaking down through the 1.1100/25 area today is the headline event of the day, as we now watch for whether this leads to follow through lower to the next zone of interest around 1.1000/1.0950 and possibly even to 1.0800 eventually.

USDCHF is a mirror image of this chart, with interesting implications around parity, assuming EURCHF is more or less unchanged to slightly higher and EURUSD is challenging below 1.1000.

EURUSD breaking down with 1.10 next in view
eurusd
source: saxoTraderGO
 
AUDUSD slipping

AUDUSD has been reluctant to commit to the selloff, but is slipping to the key final Fibo retracements of the local rally (not shown here as these may have little value given the clearly established range).

The bearish case picks up steam if we finally take out the 0.7450 area prior low, also where the 200-day moving average is converging higher.

AUDUSD succumbing finally to the dollar
audusd
Source: SaxoTraderGO

EURSEK rally consolidates

A very weak CPI release today cemented the recent rally in EURSEK above the pivotal 9.60 level and the pair is clear of all range levels stretching back several years and possibly headed to 10.00 or higher if we have a combination of weak risk appetite and higher bond yields, as the implication of very weak inflation is the Riksbank maintaining its dovish policy stance.

EURSEK back above the 9.60 mark
eursek
 Source: SaxoTraderGO

— Edited by Martin O'Rourke

John J Hardy is Saxo Bank's head of forex strategy
Download document

FX Board for Tuesday, October 11, 2016

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