Video

John J Hardy
Saxo Bank’s head of FX strategy John Hardy takes a closer look at trends and moves in today’s forex charts, including EURUSD, USDJPY, AUDUSD, and EURSEK.
Article / 19 December 2017 at 15:25 GMT

FX Board: USD tries to stand firm versus commodity dollars

Head of FX Strategy / Saxo Bank
Denmark
  • AUDUSD bogged down ahead of 200-day MA
  • Focus remains 'firmly higher' for USDCAD
  • 10.00 'last real resistance level of note' in EURSEK
Montreal
USD is hardly surging but the loonie remains snowed under, which could potentially push USDCAD past 1.30 if we break the 1.2917 resistance. Photo: meunierd / Shutterstock.com

By John J Hardy

Please see today's FX Board PDF attached to this post for the latest Notes of Interest, Trend and Trend Heat readings, as well as a few thoughts on key chart developments below.

Charts: AUDUSD

AUDUSD looked primed for a try at the higher Fibonacci levels, but instead has become bogged down ahead of the 200-day moving average just ahead of 0.7700. The chart is structurally bearish if we remain below 0.7750 or a bit worse (the ultimate pain level is not until above 0.7890) as we look to fade rallies or for a new plunge well below the the 0.7600 area to indicate the upside threat has been neutralised.

audusd

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Source: Saxo Bank 

USDCAD

USDCAD closed last week on a high note and hasn't consolidated much, keeping the focus firmly higher. It would be a help to see a more broadly resurgent USD here, but let's see what happens if 1.2917 falls here as 1.3000 is a pivotal zone stretching back into 2016. 

usdcad
Source: Saxo Bank 
 
EURSEK

The NOK wasn't saved by a nominally hawkish Norges Bank surprise last week; will the SEK likewise fail to catch a bid from a Riksbank? The 10.000 level is the last real resistance level of note until the crazy global financial crisis levels above 11.50.

eursek
Source: Saxo Bank 

— Edited by Michael McKenna

John J Hardy is head of FX strategy at Saxo Bank 
Download document

FX Board for Tuesday, December 19, 2017

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