John J Hardy
Saxo Bank’s head of FX strategy John Hardy takes a closer look at trends and moves in today’s forex charts, including EURUSD, USDJPY, AUDUSD, and EURSEK.
Article / 23 February 2018 at 15:33 GMT

FX Board: USD remains firm, JPY also keeps up the pressure

Head of FX Strategy / Saxo Bank
  • 'EURUSD continues to look heavy'
  • JPY pairs in focus on yen reassessment
  • 10.00 crucial for EURSEK

By John J Hardy

Please see today's FX Board PDF attached to this post for the latest Notes of Interest, Trend and Trend Heat readings, as well as a few thoughts on key chart developments below.


EURUSD continues to look heavy within the range after the recent attempt at the top was rejected. The downside pivot is just above 1.2200 and break could open up for the pivotal 1.2100-1.2000 zone which starts to have larger scale implications for the entire EURUSD bullish sequence that started early last year.

Source: Saxo Bank 


We continue to watch JPY crosses in general on any return of a downdraft in risk appetite, but also on technical developments in the major JPY crosses. EURJPY has poked down toward the key range low and is on the verge of interacting with the 200-day moving average in the low 131.00s. A break of this area could lead to a further 200-300 pip selloff.

Source: Saxo Bank 

USD looks bullish from a momentum perspective as the most recent new low has been thoroughly rejected and our MACD indicator has thoroughly turned around. A firmer sign of upside potential would be a move above the 0.9450 pivot area for a try at a more profound rejection of the bigger bear trend.

Source: Saxo Bank 

USDCAD has been on a bumpy ride over the last couple of sessions, after a weak Canadian Retail Sales release saw the pair testing the 200-day moving average and the last minor 76.4/78.6% Fibonacci zone near 1.2750; it then pushed back lower on a modest January CPI upside surprise today. 

The bulls have the upper hand if the 1.2600-50 zone that was pivotal on the way up offers support. 

Source: Saxo Bank 

EURSEK is eyeing its highest close since the global financial crisis era after the Riksbank minutes showed a continued dragging of heels on the anticipated timeframe for unwinding of the bank's low policy rate. The 10.00 level now becomes the downside pivot of note on this move above that key level.

Source: Saxo Bank  

— Edited by Michael McKenna

John J Hardy is head of FX strategy at Saxo Bank

Download document

FX Board for Friday, February 23, 2018


The Saxo Bank Group entities each provide execution-only service and access to permitting a person to view and/or use content available on or via the website is not intended to and does not change or expand on this. Such access and use are at all times subject to (i) The Terms of Use; (ii) Full Disclaimer; (iii) The Risk Warning; (iv) the Rules of Engagement and (v) Notices applying to and/or its content in addition (where relevant) to the terms governing the use of hyperlinks on the website of a member of the Saxo Bank Group by which access to is gained. Such content is therefore provided as no more than information. In particular no advice is intended to be provided or to be relied on as provided nor endorsed by any Saxo Bank Group entity; nor is it to be construed as solicitation or an incentive provided to subscribe for or sell or purchase any financial instrument. All trading or investments you make must be pursuant to your own unprompted and informed self-directed decision. As such no Saxo Bank Group entity will have or be liable for any losses that you may sustain as a result of any investment decision made in reliance on information which is available on or as a result of the use of the Orders given and trades effected are deemed intended to be given or effected for the account of the customer with the Saxo Bank Group entity operating in the jurisdiction in which the customer resides and/or with whom the customer opened and maintains his/her trading account. When trading through your contracting Saxo Bank Group entity will be the counterparty to any trading entered into by you. does not contain (and should not be construed as containing) financial, investment, tax or trading advice or advice of any sort offered, recommended or endorsed by Saxo Bank Group and should not be construed as a record of ourtrading prices, or as an offer, incentive or solicitation for the subscription, sale or purchase in any financial instrument. To the extent that any content is construed as investment research, you must note and accept that the content was not intended to and has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such, would be considered as a marketing communication under relevant laws. Please read our disclaimers:
- Notification on Non-Independent Invetment Research
- Full disclaimer

Check your inbox for a mail from us to fully activate your profile. No mail? Have us re-send your verification mail