Risk sentiment is this week's focus following the US/British/French attack on Syria, with the USDJPY's tentative breakout beginning to falter as prices head into the Ichimoku Cloud.
Article / 15 August 2016 at 14:22 GMT

FX Board: USD rally wilts, sterling slides

Head of FX Strategy / Saxo Bank
  • Greenback recovery rally stalls
  • EURGBP spikes into midweek UK data
  • AUDUSD bears watching 0.75 handle

Michigan Central Station, Detroit
Abandoned: USD bulls have apparently given up on the greenback rally seen late Friday as fears of a slow-moving Fed reassert themselves. Photo: iStock

By John J Hardy

Key developments in FX today

  • The greenback managed to fight back from weak data Friday, but the rally never amounted to much and was back to the soft side in early US trading today.
  • The sterling slide continued and deepened today, especially against the euro, as EURGBP arched to new multi-year highs.
  • Gold and silver are challenging the bulls after a reversal Friday

EURGBP (weekly)

EURGBP pulled to new highs for the post-Brexit cycle and was the first of the major GBP pairs to do so. This perhaps opens the way for the next flatline resistance are toward 0.8750/0.8800 with UK data mid-week the next test for sterling sentiment as speculative short positions have grown to record levels (flagging the risk of an eventual squeeze, though it may be too early for this).


Create your own charts with SaxoTraderGO click here to learn more

Source: Saxo Bank 


AUDUSD reversed from the new highs above 0.7675 last week, but the reversal has lacked energy and we'll perhaps need the Reserve Bank of Australia minutes tonight and other Ausiedata this week to either confirm the rejection or to get the ugly and choppy rally back on track. 

Bears will have a better argument if the action takes the pair back below 0.7500.

Source: Saxo Bank 

 — Edited by Michael McKenna

John J Hardy is head of FX strategy at Saxo Bank

Download document

FX Board for Monday, August 15, 2016


The Saxo Bank Group entities each provide execution-only service and access to permitting a person to view and/or use content available on or via the website is not intended to and does not change or expand on this. Such access and use are at all times subject to (i) The Terms of Use; (ii) Full Disclaimer; (iii) The Risk Warning; (iv) the Rules of Engagement and (v) Notices applying to and/or its content in addition (where relevant) to the terms governing the use of hyperlinks on the website of a member of the Saxo Bank Group by which access to is gained. Such content is therefore provided as no more than information. In particular no advice is intended to be provided or to be relied on as provided nor endorsed by any Saxo Bank Group entity; nor is it to be construed as solicitation or an incentive provided to subscribe for or sell or purchase any financial instrument. All trading or investments you make must be pursuant to your own unprompted and informed self-directed decision. As such no Saxo Bank Group entity will have or be liable for any losses that you may sustain as a result of any investment decision made in reliance on information which is available on or as a result of the use of the Orders given and trades effected are deemed intended to be given or effected for the account of the customer with the Saxo Bank Group entity operating in the jurisdiction in which the customer resides and/or with whom the customer opened and maintains his/her trading account. When trading through your contracting Saxo Bank Group entity will be the counterparty to any trading entered into by you. does not contain (and should not be construed as containing) financial, investment, tax or trading advice or advice of any sort offered, recommended or endorsed by Saxo Bank Group and should not be construed as a record of ourtrading prices, or as an offer, incentive or solicitation for the subscription, sale or purchase in any financial instrument. To the extent that any content is construed as investment research, you must note and accept that the content was not intended to and has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such, would be considered as a marketing communication under relevant laws. Please read our disclaimers:
- Notification on Non-Independent Invetment Research
- Full disclaimer
- 沪ICP备13028953号-1

Check your inbox for a mail from us to fully activate your profile. No mail? Have us re-send your verification mail