Clive Lambert - FuturesTechs
Clive Lambert is looking to short AUDUSD at 0.7677 with a stop above 0.7700. His targets are 0.7510 and 0.7440, the latter being the mid-September low/bounce.
Article / 07 July 2016 at 14:45 GMT

FX Board: USD rally fizzles ahead of payrolls

Head of FX Strategy / Saxo Bank
  • USD rally rejected in commodity currencies
  • Cable pokes above 1.30 handle
  • NZDUSD gains on risk-on shift

 The NZD has rallied in tandem with the risk-on shift. Photo: iStock

By John J Hardy

Key developments in FX today

  • Churning and chopping were the main course for FX traders yesterday and today as the recent USD rally attempt was rejected in most pairs, particularly the commodity currencies, which were sharply strong from yesterday's lows. Even AUDUSD is near the top of the range for the week after the S&P 500 ratings agency downgraded Australia's debt overnight, while NZD and CAD posted stronger comebacks. 
  • Sterling managed a respectable consolidation and GBPUSD poked above 1.3000 today, though that level was not holding as of this writing. The EURGBP selloff, meanwhile, managed just below 0.8500 before bouncing.
  • Elsewhere, EURSEK is pressing to new local highs and looks ready to challenge the multi-year highs if it can maintain above 9.40/45.
  • Precious metals remain in consolidation mode as they seem to be functioning as a safe haven with the rebound in risk appetite.
  • Please see the attached FX Board PDF with comments.


NZDUSD has charged back higher as risk appetite has recovered and perhaps on the focus on a dovish Federal Reserve (even with stronger US data yesterday hardly registering a shift in Fed expectations) and the assumption that the bar is very high for US data to actually move the Fed to hike rates. 

As well, an AUDNZD collapse on the overnight downgrade of Australia's debt by the S&P ratings agency. A clearing of recent highs post-US jobs numbers tomorrow could shift expectations quickly toward the 0.7500 area.

Create your own charts with Saxo Trader click here to learn more.
Source: Saxo Bank

— Edited by Michael McKenna
John J Hardy is head of forex strategy at Saxo Bank
Download document

FX Board for Thursday, July 7, 2016


The Saxo Bank Group entities each provide execution-only service and access to permitting a person to view and/or use content available on or via the website is not intended to and does not change or expand on this. Such access and use are at all times subject to (i) The Terms of Use; (ii) Full Disclaimer; (iii) The Risk Warning; (iv) the Rules of Engagement and (v) Notices applying to and/or its content in addition (where relevant) to the terms governing the use of hyperlinks on the website of a member of the Saxo Bank Group by which access to is gained. Such content is therefore provided as no more than information. In particular no advice is intended to be provided or to be relied on as provided nor endorsed by any Saxo Bank Group entity; nor is it to be construed as solicitation or an incentive provided to subscribe for or sell or purchase any financial instrument. All trading or investments you make must be pursuant to your own unprompted and informed self-directed decision. As such no Saxo Bank Group entity will have or be liable for any losses that you may sustain as a result of any investment decision made in reliance on information which is available on or as a result of the use of the Orders given and trades effected are deemed intended to be given or effected for the account of the customer with the Saxo Bank Group entity operating in the jurisdiction in which the customer resides and/or with whom the customer opened and maintains his/her trading account. When trading through your contracting Saxo Bank Group entity will be the counterparty to any trading entered into by you. does not contain (and should not be construed as containing) financial, investment, tax or trading advice or advice of any sort offered, recommended or endorsed by Saxo Bank Group and should not be construed as a record of ourtrading prices, or as an offer, incentive or solicitation for the subscription, sale or purchase in any financial instrument. To the extent that any content is construed as investment research, you must note and accept that the content was not intended to and has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such, would be considered as a marketing communication under relevant laws. Please read our disclaimers:
- Notification on Non-Independent Invetment Research
- Full disclaimer

Check your inbox for a mail from us to fully activate your profile. No mail? Have us re-send your verification mail