John J Hardy
Saxo Bank’s head of FX strategy John Hardy takes a closer look at trends and moves in today’s forex charts, including EURUSD, USDJPY, AUDUSD, and EURSEK.
Article / 01 February 2018 at 15:37 GMT

FX Board: USD post-FOMC bounce so far a dead cat – #SaxoStrats

Head of FX Strategy / Saxo Bank
  • FOMC saw a modest trimming of USD shorts
  • But dollar gains subsequently faded ahead of Friday's NFP
  • Risk-aversion capped action in some JPY crosses today

By John J Hardy

Please see today's FX Board PDF attached to this post for the latest Notes of Interest, Trend and Trend Heat readings, as well as a few thoughts on key chart developments below.


The JPY was weaker overnight again as the most recent signals from the Bank of Japan are that they will stick to their guns on controlling bond yields even as yields rise elsewhere. But it is hard for the yen to continue lower when risk aversion rears its ugly head as it did at times today yet again, so we saw an interesting cap of the action in some of the JPY crosses today, including GBPJPY shown below. It's too early to tell if the new top has been rejected, but we'll look for signs of broadening JPY firmness if global risk finally suffers a chunky correction. Note the unconfirmed momentum divergence on our (fast) MACD indicator as well.
Source: Saxo Bank 

The Aussie has been hit by negative news, including fresh limitations and stricter policy on inbound investments clearly aimed at China and overnight saw a weak building approvals number for December. Still, the US dollar has been so weak that the bad news has only seen a brief interaction with the 0.8000 level in AUDUSD. Mere consolidation moves could target the 21-day moving average, which is rising fast, and then the first Fibo retracement of the large rally move just below 0.7900. The 61.8% Fibo around 0.7750 is the bigger downside swing level. 

Source: Saxo Bank 

– Edited by Clare MacCarthy


John J Hardy is head of FX strategy at Saxo Bank 
Download document

FX Board for Thursday, February 1, 2018


The Saxo Bank Group entities each provide execution-only service and access to permitting a person to view and/or use content available on or via the website is not intended to and does not change or expand on this. Such access and use are at all times subject to (i) The Terms of Use; (ii) Full Disclaimer; (iii) The Risk Warning; (iv) the Rules of Engagement and (v) Notices applying to and/or its content in addition (where relevant) to the terms governing the use of hyperlinks on the website of a member of the Saxo Bank Group by which access to is gained. Such content is therefore provided as no more than information. In particular no advice is intended to be provided or to be relied on as provided nor endorsed by any Saxo Bank Group entity; nor is it to be construed as solicitation or an incentive provided to subscribe for or sell or purchase any financial instrument. All trading or investments you make must be pursuant to your own unprompted and informed self-directed decision. As such no Saxo Bank Group entity will have or be liable for any losses that you may sustain as a result of any investment decision made in reliance on information which is available on or as a result of the use of the Orders given and trades effected are deemed intended to be given or effected for the account of the customer with the Saxo Bank Group entity operating in the jurisdiction in which the customer resides and/or with whom the customer opened and maintains his/her trading account. When trading through your contracting Saxo Bank Group entity will be the counterparty to any trading entered into by you. does not contain (and should not be construed as containing) financial, investment, tax or trading advice or advice of any sort offered, recommended or endorsed by Saxo Bank Group and should not be construed as a record of ourtrading prices, or as an offer, incentive or solicitation for the subscription, sale or purchase in any financial instrument. To the extent that any content is construed as investment research, you must note and accept that the content was not intended to and has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such, would be considered as a marketing communication under relevant laws. Please read our disclaimers:
- Notification on Non-Independent Invetment Research
- Full disclaimer

Check your inbox for a mail from us to fully activate your profile. No mail? Have us re-send your verification mail