06 September 2016 at 14:25 GMT
- Ugly ISM non-manufacturing miss craters USD
- Aussie rally fails to take out key Fibo level
- USDJPY looking at entering Ichimoku cloud
Ghost town: A soft US ISM non-maufacturing release today has
returned the greenback to a realm of doubt. Photo: iStock
By John J Hardy
Key developments in FX today
- Another relatively lacklustre day in FX land, as daily trading ranges continue to wilt.
- The pound sterling remained firm, as EURGBP looked at new local lows and GBPUSD poked into the last shreds of the range since topping out around 1.3375 in early August.
- The most liquid G3 currencies were weakest, while the smaller currencies were generally firm.
- Precious metals were quite strongly bid, with gold higher through a key pivot area around $1,330/oz.
- A soft ISM non-manufacturing release is pressuring USD as EURUSD enters the key 1.1200/50 pivot zone again and AUDUSD is up against an important Fibonacci retracement level following last night's Reserve Bank of Australia statement and the soft US print.
USDJPY peeking into the cloud
USDJPY and other major JPY crosses have been having a look at the key Ichimoku cloud levels recently,. For USDJPY, those levels may drop in coming days, which would mean an entrance into the cloud and focus on the top of the cloud if the pair can rally from here.
First support looks like 102.50.
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Source: Saxo Bank
AUDUSD at key level
AUDUSD spurted higher in the wake of the RBA statement overnight; at first it was turned back at the 61.8% Fibo retracement of the selloff, but after the weak US data it is being challenged again as an upside pivot area that could see the pair challenging the descending trend/consolidation line back from the 0.7800-plus highs.
Gold squeezed back through resistance near $1,330/oz, which was an important level on the way down and remains the key bear/bull line for the moment. Bulls will prefer a swift follow up rally to keep the focus on the $1,375 area top and beyond.
Source: Saxo Bank
— Edited by Michael McKenna