John J Hardy
Saxo Bank’s head of FX strategy John Hardy takes a closer look at trends and moves in today’s forex charts, including EURUSD, USDJPY, AUDUSD, and EURSEK.
Article / 14 February 2018 at 15:30 GMT

FX Board: USD may fade badly if risk appetite rallies – #SaxoStrats

Head of FX Strategy / Saxo Bank
  • Combination of high inflation and weak consumption rocks markets
  • Nervousness as US yields poke back to the highs of the cycle
  • Risk appetite response is likely the key to currency markets' next move

By John J Hardy

Please see today's FX Board PDF attached to this post for the latest Notes of Interest, Trend and Trend Heat readings, as well as a few thoughts on key chart developments below.


This is the most important chart across major FX now that USDJPY has actually executed a break of the lows. If risk appetite crumbles again to new lows, the pressure remains likely to the downside – possibly all the way to 100.00. The only combination that might bring support – at least relative to other USD crosses – could be stable to higher yields together with a stronger return of risk appetite after today's US data was an important test of market sentiment. If risk appetite surges back higher, USDJPY declines may prove more sluggish. The upside pivot zone looks like 107.50.
Source: Saxo Bank 

The commodity dollars have fared rather poorly in the wake of the US data today – the tactical outlook likely depends on whether risk appetite can stabilise and head back higher. Today's closing levels look critical in that regard and tonight we have Australia jobs numbers. If both risk and the jobs report are weak, we could see a move through the pivotal 0.7750 area Fibonacci retracement and 200-day moving average. A strong NY session today in equities and a reasonably in-line to stronger than expected Australian jobs report, on the other hand, look positive for a go back at the top of the cycle.
Source: Saxo Bank  

– Edited by Clare MacCarthy


John J Hardy is head of FX strategy at Saxo Bank

Download document

FX Board for Wednesday, February 14, 2018

AlexF AlexF
This comment has been redacted


The Saxo Bank Group entities each provide execution-only service and access to permitting a person to view and/or use content available on or via the website is not intended to and does not change or expand on this. Such access and use are at all times subject to (i) The Terms of Use; (ii) Full Disclaimer; (iii) The Risk Warning; (iv) the Rules of Engagement and (v) Notices applying to and/or its content in addition (where relevant) to the terms governing the use of hyperlinks on the website of a member of the Saxo Bank Group by which access to is gained. Such content is therefore provided as no more than information. In particular no advice is intended to be provided or to be relied on as provided nor endorsed by any Saxo Bank Group entity; nor is it to be construed as solicitation or an incentive provided to subscribe for or sell or purchase any financial instrument. All trading or investments you make must be pursuant to your own unprompted and informed self-directed decision. As such no Saxo Bank Group entity will have or be liable for any losses that you may sustain as a result of any investment decision made in reliance on information which is available on or as a result of the use of the Orders given and trades effected are deemed intended to be given or effected for the account of the customer with the Saxo Bank Group entity operating in the jurisdiction in which the customer resides and/or with whom the customer opened and maintains his/her trading account. When trading through your contracting Saxo Bank Group entity will be the counterparty to any trading entered into by you. does not contain (and should not be construed as containing) financial, investment, tax or trading advice or advice of any sort offered, recommended or endorsed by Saxo Bank Group and should not be construed as a record of ourtrading prices, or as an offer, incentive or solicitation for the subscription, sale or purchase in any financial instrument. To the extent that any content is construed as investment research, you must note and accept that the content was not intended to and has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such, would be considered as a marketing communication under relevant laws. Please read our disclaimers:
- Notification on Non-Independent Invetment Research
- Full disclaimer

Check your inbox for a mail from us to fully activate your profile. No mail? Have us re-send your verification mail