John J Hardy
Saxo Bank’s head of FX strategy John Hardy takes a closer look at trends and moves in today’s forex charts, including EURUSD, USDJPY, AUDUSD, and EURSEK.
Article / 28 February 2018 at 15:40 GMT

FX Board: USD feels out post-Powell resistance — #SaxoStrats

Head of FX Strategy / Saxo Bank
  • EURUSD just below key range support
  • Cable hit by sterling plunge, dollar rally
  • 'AUDUSD is at pivotal levels'

By John J Hardy

Please see today's FX Board PDF attached to this post for the latest Notes of Interest, Trend and Trend Heat readings, as well as a few thoughts on key chart developments below.

Charts: EURUSD

EURUSD has teased the key range support near 1.2200 and is trading just below it as of this writing; the next major zone of interest lower is the former high on the way up around 1.2095. This weekend's Italian election looks like the next sentiment test for the euro, which needs to pick up a bid well ahead of 1.2000 to avoid facing a more major challenge to the longer term uptrend. 

It wouldn't take much to reassure bears here... a smart reversal of this break attempt, for example, given the chart structure.

Source: Saxo Bank 

EURJPY (weekly)

EURJPY has broken down below range lows and the 200-day moving average, possibly opening up for considerable progression lower if the move holds. The weekly Ichimoku rises toward the 127.50-plus area over the next couple of weeks and could be a bearish target.

Source: Saxo Bank  


Cable is in a steep retreat in the wake of fresh Brexit uncertainties hitting sterling just as the greenback is also posting notable strength. The plunge through the 1.3855 area local pivot has taken the action lower (note the 200-day moving average in GBPJPY giving way as this was written as a possible accelerant). 

The more major challenge to the trend is not until the 1.3600-50 zone, the major resistance level on the way up.

Source: Saxo Bank 


AUDUSD is at pivotal levels with a break of 0.77500-75 the downside blow needed to set a more bearish outlook in motion. Failing that, the range is the range.

Source: Saxo Bank

— Edited by Michael McKenna

John J Hardy is head of FX strategy at Saxo Bank  
Download document

FX Board for Wednesday, February 28, 2018


The Saxo Bank Group entities each provide execution-only service and access to permitting a person to view and/or use content available on or via the website is not intended to and does not change or expand on this. Such access and use are at all times subject to (i) The Terms of Use; (ii) Full Disclaimer; (iii) The Risk Warning; (iv) the Rules of Engagement and (v) Notices applying to and/or its content in addition (where relevant) to the terms governing the use of hyperlinks on the website of a member of the Saxo Bank Group by which access to is gained. Such content is therefore provided as no more than information. In particular no advice is intended to be provided or to be relied on as provided nor endorsed by any Saxo Bank Group entity; nor is it to be construed as solicitation or an incentive provided to subscribe for or sell or purchase any financial instrument. All trading or investments you make must be pursuant to your own unprompted and informed self-directed decision. As such no Saxo Bank Group entity will have or be liable for any losses that you may sustain as a result of any investment decision made in reliance on information which is available on or as a result of the use of the Orders given and trades effected are deemed intended to be given or effected for the account of the customer with the Saxo Bank Group entity operating in the jurisdiction in which the customer resides and/or with whom the customer opened and maintains his/her trading account. When trading through your contracting Saxo Bank Group entity will be the counterparty to any trading entered into by you. does not contain (and should not be construed as containing) financial, investment, tax or trading advice or advice of any sort offered, recommended or endorsed by Saxo Bank Group and should not be construed as a record of ourtrading prices, or as an offer, incentive or solicitation for the subscription, sale or purchase in any financial instrument. To the extent that any content is construed as investment research, you must note and accept that the content was not intended to and has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such, would be considered as a marketing communication under relevant laws. Please read our disclaimers:
- Notification on Non-Independent Invetment Research
- Full disclaimer

Check your inbox for a mail from us to fully activate your profile. No mail? Have us re-send your verification mail