Article / 20 February 2018 at 15:27 GMT

FX Board: USD bears need to prove their point soon or else

Head of FX Strategy / Saxo Bank
  • USDCHF in focus if dollar breaks higher
  • SEK sent lower by weak CPI print
  • NOKSEK jumps to new local highs

USD bears
Time to make a move... Photo: Shutterstock

By John J Hardy

Please see today's FX Board PDF attached to this post for the latest Notes of Interest, Trend and Trend Heat readings, as well as a few thoughts on key chart developments below.

Charts: USDCHF

USDCHF is an interesting one as the recent low came without an accompanying fresh momentum low, and the divergence is somewhat bullish already and more so if the USD can follow through higher soon, with better confirmation if the pair can retake the 0.9400-50 zone. 

Of course, that eventuality would also likely require a breakdown in EURUSD below 1.2300 unless CHF is weakening sharply against the euro as well.

Source: Saxo Bank 


The SEK was sent lower again today after a weak CPI release from Sweden today. This has taken the EURSEK pair back close to the massive cycle resistance at 10.00, a level that may come fail more significantly if risk appetite deteriorates again.

Source: Saxo Bank 

The SEK decline is readily evident elsewhere, as well, especially versus NOK, as NOKSEK has vaulted to new local highs after a prior false start above the 200-day moving average. The momentum looks fresh and hot and could take the pair significantly higher if 10.00 fails in EURSEK and forces a reassessment of SEK's downside potential.

Source: Saxo Bank 

— Edited by Michael McKenna

John J Hardy is head of FX strategy at Saxo Bank

Download document

FX Board for Tuesday, February 20, 2018

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