Video

#SaxoStrats
Equities are off, the dollar's ascent has been stopped in its stride and sentiment has turned sour after the EU retaliated to the the Trump tariffs with a raft of levies of its own.
Article / 20 February 2018 at 15:27 GMT

FX Board: USD bears need to prove their point soon or else

Head of FX Strategy / Saxo Bank
Denmark
  • USDCHF in focus if dollar breaks higher
  • SEK sent lower by weak CPI print
  • NOKSEK jumps to new local highs

USD bears
Time to make a move... Photo: Shutterstock

By John J Hardy

Please see today's FX Board PDF attached to this post for the latest Notes of Interest, Trend and Trend Heat readings, as well as a few thoughts on key chart developments below.

Charts: USDCHF

USDCHF is an interesting one as the recent low came without an accompanying fresh momentum low, and the divergence is somewhat bullish already and more so if the USD can follow through higher soon, with better confirmation if the pair can retake the 0.9400-50 zone. 

Of course, that eventuality would also likely require a breakdown in EURUSD below 1.2300 unless CHF is weakening sharply against the euro as well.

usdchf
Source: Saxo Bank 

EURSEK

The SEK was sent lower again today after a weak CPI release from Sweden today. This has taken the EURSEK pair back close to the massive cycle resistance at 10.00, a level that may come fail more significantly if risk appetite deteriorates again.

eursek
Source: Saxo Bank 
 
NOKSEK

The SEK decline is readily evident elsewhere, as well, especially versus NOK, as NOKSEK has vaulted to new local highs after a prior false start above the 200-day moving average. The momentum looks fresh and hot and could take the pair significantly higher if 10.00 fails in EURSEK and forces a reassessment of SEK's downside potential.

noksek
Source: Saxo Bank 

— Edited by Michael McKenna

John J Hardy is head of FX strategy at Saxo Bank

Download document

FX Board for Tuesday, February 20, 2018

Disclaimer

The Saxo Bank Group entities each provide execution-only service and access to Tradingfloor.com permitting a person to view and/or use content available on or via the website is not intended to and does not change or expand on this. Such access and use are at all times subject to (i) The Terms of Use; (ii) Full Disclaimer; (iii) The Risk Warning; (iv) the Rules of Engagement and (v) Notices applying to Tradingfloor.com and/or its content in addition (where relevant) to the terms governing the use of hyperlinks on the website of a member of the Saxo Bank Group by which access to Tradingfloor.com is gained. Such content is therefore provided as no more than information. In particular no advice is intended to be provided or to be relied on as provided nor endorsed by any Saxo Bank Group entity; nor is it to be construed as solicitation or an incentive provided to subscribe for or sell or purchase any financial instrument. All trading or investments you make must be pursuant to your own unprompted and informed self-directed decision. As such no Saxo Bank Group entity will have or be liable for any losses that you may sustain as a result of any investment decision made in reliance on information which is available on Tradingfloor.com or as a result of the use of the Tradingfloor.com. Orders given and trades effected are deemed intended to be given or effected for the account of the customer with the Saxo Bank Group entity operating in the jurisdiction in which the customer resides and/or with whom the customer opened and maintains his/her trading account. When trading through Tradingfloor.com your contracting Saxo Bank Group entity will be the counterparty to any trading entered into by you. Tradingfloor.com does not contain (and should not be construed as containing) financial, investment, tax or trading advice or advice of any sort offered, recommended or endorsed by Saxo Bank Group and should not be construed as a record of ourtrading prices, or as an offer, incentive or solicitation for the subscription, sale or purchase in any financial instrument. To the extent that any content is construed as investment research, you must note and accept that the content was not intended to and has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such, would be considered as a marketing communication under relevant laws. Please read our disclaimers:
- Notification on Non-Independent Invetment Research
- Full disclaimer
- 沪ICP备13028953号-1

Check your inbox for a mail from us to fully activate your profile. No mail? Have us re-send your verification mail