John J Hardy
Saxo Bank’s head of FX strategy John Hardy takes a closer look at trends and moves in today’s forex charts, including EURUSD, USDJPY, AUDUSD, and EURSEK.
Article / 05 February 2018 at 15:50 GMT

FX Board: Market whipsaws on risk appetite gyrations — #SaxoStrats

Head of FX Strategy / Saxo Bank
  • 1.2335-00 crucial for EURUSD
  • BoE meeting key for EURGBP
  • AUDNZD pivotal around 1.0850 

Risk appetite
Both the dollar and risk appetite are trading in dramatic fashion. Photo: Shutterstock

By John J Hardy

Charts: EURUSD

EURUSD looked on the defensive as last week's attempt back above 1.2500 was brushed aside, but the downside risks don't really engage unless the pair works back down through the 1.2335-00 zone, which could open for the more major sub-1.2100 pivot zone. Note our fast MACD momentum indicator is starting to turn lower.


Create your own charts with SaxoTraderGO click here to learn more

Source: Saxo Bank 


EURGBP has pulled higher again through local resistance and is now support as long as it remains north of 0.8800-25; we could risk a shot toward 0.9000-plus again if the Bank of England meeting this Thursday can't support. 

The risk for sterling bears is that the BoE compliments the strong sterling as doing the heavy lifting in avoiding inflation risks, meaning it is happy to wait a bit longer before hiking rates.

Source: Saxo Bank 
AUDUSD executed a precise test of the 38.2% Fibo ahead of tonight's RBA meeting - the currency likely sensitive to the overall risk appetite picture as much as anything the RBA likely to say, as weak recent CPI data could mean the bank happy to maintain a wait-and-see stance.
Source: Saxo Bank 


This pair looks pivotal this week around the 1.0850 area as both the Reserve Bank of Australia (tonight) and the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (Thursday) are set to meet. 

Source: Saxo Bank 

— Edited by Michael McKenna

John J Hardy is head of FX strategy at Saxo Bank 
Download document

FX Board for Monday, February 5, 2018


The Saxo Bank Group entities each provide execution-only service and access to permitting a person to view and/or use content available on or via the website is not intended to and does not change or expand on this. Such access and use are at all times subject to (i) The Terms of Use; (ii) Full Disclaimer; (iii) The Risk Warning; (iv) the Rules of Engagement and (v) Notices applying to and/or its content in addition (where relevant) to the terms governing the use of hyperlinks on the website of a member of the Saxo Bank Group by which access to is gained. Such content is therefore provided as no more than information. In particular no advice is intended to be provided or to be relied on as provided nor endorsed by any Saxo Bank Group entity; nor is it to be construed as solicitation or an incentive provided to subscribe for or sell or purchase any financial instrument. All trading or investments you make must be pursuant to your own unprompted and informed self-directed decision. As such no Saxo Bank Group entity will have or be liable for any losses that you may sustain as a result of any investment decision made in reliance on information which is available on or as a result of the use of the Orders given and trades effected are deemed intended to be given or effected for the account of the customer with the Saxo Bank Group entity operating in the jurisdiction in which the customer resides and/or with whom the customer opened and maintains his/her trading account. When trading through your contracting Saxo Bank Group entity will be the counterparty to any trading entered into by you. does not contain (and should not be construed as containing) financial, investment, tax or trading advice or advice of any sort offered, recommended or endorsed by Saxo Bank Group and should not be construed as a record of ourtrading prices, or as an offer, incentive or solicitation for the subscription, sale or purchase in any financial instrument. To the extent that any content is construed as investment research, you must note and accept that the content was not intended to and has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such, would be considered as a marketing communication under relevant laws. Please read our disclaimers:
- Notification on Non-Independent Invetment Research
- Full disclaimer

Check your inbox for a mail from us to fully activate your profile. No mail? Have us re-send your verification mail