John J Hardy
In this latest webinar, Saxo Bank's head of FX strategy John Hardy analyses the market with topics including synchronised global growth, Saxo’s global risk indicator and data surprises.
Article / 09 September 2016 at 13:53 GMT

FX Board: Market energy may be building after hectic week

Head of FX Strategy / Saxo Bank
By John J Hardy

Key developments in FX today:

The USD pulled sharply higher, in part supported by the reaction to the European Central Bank meeting yesterday, where the lack of dovishness by its president, Mario Draghi, saw carry trades reversing broadly, and AUD and NZD going lower in particular against the euro and the US dollar.
Additionally, higher yields and some rhetoric from the Boston Fed's Rosengren added to the USD strength, which broadened to across the board by the early US hours. This gives USD bulls a hook going into next week – particularly in pairs like AUDUSD and NZDUSD, where fresh bearish reversals may be in the offing. 


USDJPY zipped back higher today – the interest picks up again next week if the bottom of the Ichimoku cloud comes into play around 103.70. Note that EURJPY and GBPJPY have entered their respective Ichimoku clouds as well. Above there, the focus will be on recent highs near 104.30 and then the top of the Ichimoku cloud a bit above 105.00.
Source: SaxoTraderGO
While the euro has wilted against the US dollar in today's trading, it has still fared better than the AUD in the wake of the ECB meeting, and an interesting resistance area is coming into view here, and if we see a reversal of the carry trade it is likely to favour euro over the Aussie.
 Source: SaxoTraderGO

AUDUSD has reversed hard again, though beleaguered bears may decide to sit on their hands for a break of the 0.7500 area before believing that a bigger unwind is in the offing, after a recent false start.
Source: SaxoTraderGO
Next week, we may have an interesting case of momentum divergence confirmation as we watch whether AUDNZD pulls back higher after attempting to breech the lows below 1.0313 this week. NZD may be the biggest loser if we have a powerful anti-carry trade theme next week.
 Source: SaxoTraderGO

– Edited by Clare MacCarthy


John J Hardy is head of FX strategy at Saxo Bank

Download document

FX Board for Friday, September 9, 2016

Relevant articles for you


The Saxo Bank Group entities each provide execution-only service and access to permitting a person to view and/or use content available on or via the website is not intended to and does not change or expand on this. Such access and use are at all times subject to (i) The Terms of Use; (ii) Full Disclaimer; (iii) The Risk Warning; (iv) the Rules of Engagement and (v) Notices applying to and/or its content in addition (where relevant) to the terms governing the use of hyperlinks on the website of a member of the Saxo Bank Group by which access to is gained. Such content is therefore provided as no more than information. In particular no advice is intended to be provided or to be relied on as provided nor endorsed by any Saxo Bank Group entity; nor is it to be construed as solicitation or an incentive provided to subscribe for or sell or purchase any financial instrument. All trading or investments you make must be pursuant to your own unprompted and informed self-directed decision. As such no Saxo Bank Group entity will have or be liable for any losses that you may sustain as a result of any investment decision made in reliance on information which is available on or as a result of the use of the Orders given and trades effected are deemed intended to be given or effected for the account of the customer with the Saxo Bank Group entity operating in the jurisdiction in which the customer resides and/or with whom the customer opened and maintains his/her trading account. When trading through your contracting Saxo Bank Group entity will be the counterparty to any trading entered into by you. does not contain (and should not be construed as containing) financial, investment, tax or trading advice or advice of any sort offered, recommended or endorsed by Saxo Bank Group and should not be construed as a record of ourtrading prices, or as an offer, incentive or solicitation for the subscription, sale or purchase in any financial instrument. To the extent that any content is construed as investment research, you must note and accept that the content was not intended to and has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such, would be considered as a marketing communication under relevant laws. Please read our disclaimers:
- Notification on Non-Independent Invetment Research
- Full disclaimer
- 沪ICP备13028953号-1

Check your inbox for a mail from us to fully activate your profile. No mail? Have us re-send your verification mail