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#SaxoStrats
Equities are off, the dollar's ascent has been stopped in its stride and sentiment has turned sour after the EU retaliated to the the Trump tariffs with a raft of levies of its own.
Article / 06 March 2018 at 15:20 GMT

FX Board: Hard to hang our hats on recent moves – #SaxoStrats

Head of FX Strategy / Saxo Bank
Denmark
By John J Hardy

Please see today's FX Board PDF attached to this post for the latest Notes of Interest, Trend and Trend Heat readings, as well as a few thoughts on key chart developments below.

Charts
EURUSD
EURUSD is up through a very local pivot area and 21-day moving average around 1.2350+, but that level is in the middle of the prior range and we won't know the quality of the move until the other side of the European Central Bank meeting on Thursday, where president Mario Draghi is likely to do what he can to talk down policy normalisation prospects, even if the ECB is somewhat committed to a timetable at this point for winding down QE. In short, confidence in new directional momentum is minimal until proven otherwise.
eurusd
Source: Saxo Bank 

AUDUSD
AUDUSD squeezed back higher after a mixed reaction to the less confident Reserve Bank of Australia overnight, likely as recent shorts have been disappointed by the inability of the recent break of support to generate more downside momentum. Buy the move is too modest to look decisive yet – as we have a number of instances of both weak directional moves that are reversed, and then reversals that fail to follow through.
audusd
Source: Saxo Bank 

– Edited by Clare MacCarthy

 

John J Hardy is head of FX strategy at Saxo Bank 
Download document

FX Board for Tuesday, March 6, 2017

25 April
Esmann Esmann
Hi John, Do you have any updated analyses on the EUR USD and USD CAD. USD seems to be strengthening today Can we expect this to continue?

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