James Kim@Saxo
James Kim, sales trader at Saxo Capital Markets Australia, examines trading strategies during week 43 in a technical analysis of charts for forex, indices and commodities.
Article / 29 June 2016 at 14:45 GMT

FX Board: Dead cat bounce with ambitions?

Head of FX Strategy / Saxo Bank
By John J Hardy

Key developments in FX Today

The USD and the JPY slid against most other currencies today, especially sterling, which bounced strongly again, pushing above yesterday's highs in GBPUSD amid the lack of clarity on where we are going next. While GBP still has considerable room to bounce around without technically reversing the impact of the Brexit vote, we're getting to important resistance levels quite soon in the commodity dollars versus the USD.

Other standout action on the day was seen in the surge in silver prices, though we need to see a hold into tomorrow's action, as gold has not beeen participating in the enthusiasm. 


EURGBP has pushed sharply lower on the day on the bounce in sterling as it appears we're facing a long wait until we know what the next step in a Brexit looks like despite the EU summit of the last couple of days. This allows for some mean reversion in sterling pairs on the uncertainty after the shock of the initial reaction, and the next levels for EURGBP include the 0.8200 area and then the sub-0.8100 area where the 38.2% retracement comes in.
Source: Saxo Bank. Create your own charts with SaxoTraderGO click here to learn more 

AUDUSD is an example of a pair that moved in sympathy with the broad, risk-off reaction to the Brexit vote late last week - but as with the action in other markets, we've yet to see a follow through move lower. That move needs to come in the next day or we have to full shift from bearish to neutral and uncertain. Besides observing basic Fibonacci retracement levels (in particularly the 61.8% at 0.7517), it's important for the bears here that we continue to close below 0.7200 to keep the focus on lower levels to come..

An interesting sub-plot at the moment is the divergence among the Scandies as EURSEK has remained clear of recent resistance, while EURNOK has dipped back lower, perhaps on the bounce in oil prices. This has NOKSEK pushing on the highs for the cycle again - will hopes for a breakout be once again dashed or are we finally heading for a repricing of this pair? 

– Edited by Clare MacCarthy


Click here for more FX views on – the home of social trading

Download document

FX Board for Wednesday, June 29, 2016


The Saxo Bank Group entities each provide execution-only service and access to permitting a person to view and/or use content available on or via the website is not intended to and does not change or expand on this. Such access and use are at all times subject to (i) The Terms of Use; (ii) Full Disclaimer; (iii) The Risk Warning; (iv) the Rules of Engagement and (v) Notices applying to and/or its content in addition (where relevant) to the terms governing the use of hyperlinks on the website of a member of the Saxo Bank Group by which access to is gained. Such content is therefore provided as no more than information. In particular no advice is intended to be provided or to be relied on as provided nor endorsed by any Saxo Bank Group entity; nor is it to be construed as solicitation or an incentive provided to subscribe for or sell or purchase any financial instrument. All trading or investments you make must be pursuant to your own unprompted and informed self-directed decision. As such no Saxo Bank Group entity will have or be liable for any losses that you may sustain as a result of any investment decision made in reliance on information which is available on or as a result of the use of the Orders given and trades effected are deemed intended to be given or effected for the account of the customer with the Saxo Bank Group entity operating in the jurisdiction in which the customer resides and/or with whom the customer opened and maintains his/her trading account. When trading through your contracting Saxo Bank Group entity will be the counterparty to any trading entered into by you. does not contain (and should not be construed as containing) financial, investment, tax or trading advice or advice of any sort offered, recommended or endorsed by Saxo Bank Group and should not be construed as a record of ourtrading prices, or as an offer, incentive or solicitation for the subscription, sale or purchase in any financial instrument. To the extent that any content is construed as investment research, you must note and accept that the content was not intended to and has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such, would be considered as a marketing communication under relevant laws. Please read our disclaimers:
- Notification on Non-Independent Invetment Research
- Full disclaimer

Check your inbox for a mail from us to fully activate your profile. No mail? Have us re-send your verification mail