29 January 2018 at 15:48 GMT
- EURUSD consolidating but bull trend remains
- 1.15 perhaps the next key area in EURCHF
- EURSEK moving towards potential downside break
It is euro and not dollar bears who are making moves today. Photo: photo.ua / Shutterstock.com
By John J Hardy
Please see today's FX Board PDF attached to this post for the latest Notes of Interest, Trend and Trend Heat readings, as well as a few thoughts on key chart developments below.
EURUSD price action today was a fairly straightforward consolidation after a couple of intraday rallies over the last two sessions were turned back. But the bullish argument doesn't weaken tactically unless the price action is taken back through the 1.2325-00 area and structurally, only a big selloff below 1.2100 could threaten to turn the tide.
We have a number of big US event risks this week and the next focus higher if 1.2500 is retaken into a weekly close could be the 1.3000 area, which is perhaps the most oft-contested big round figure in EURUSD modern history.
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Source: Saxo Bank
Some of the euro weakness may be due to a high momentum breakdown of the weakly rising channel in EURCHF, a setup that suggests that longs were in an increasingly crowded trade (the breakdown in USDCHF to new multi-year lows is also aggravating at the margin).
The next area of interest is perhaps the 1.1500 round figure and then the rising 200-day moving average, currently above 1.1350.
EURSEK is trying to join its Scandie cousin NOK in breaking a key pivot zone that opens up more of the downside range, starting with perhaps the 9.60-65 area, though the range extends all the way below 9.50 to the big 9.41 low area of 2017.