Article / 13 November 2017 at 15:18 GMT

FX Board: Big dollar dithers as sterling suffers

Head of FX Strategy / Saxo Bank
Dollar bill
 The US dollar picture remains mixed. Image: Shutterstock

By John J Hardy

Please see today's FX Board PDF attached to this post for the latest Notes of Interest, Trend and Trend Heat readings, as well as a few thoughts on key chart developments below.



A fresh spike higher in EURGBP represents the latest direction change in the churning ranges of the key GBP pairs. Brexit developments will continue to affect the sterling outlook over the next month as the EU negotiator Michel Barnier has set a two-week deadline for the UK to respond on the divorce bill issue and the UK hopes to advance to a new phase of negotiations by the time of the EU summit in mid-December.
Source: Saxo Bank

AUDUSD is heavy again, but we've been here before and the bears need to prove themselves if we're to believe that the pair can progress to fresh lows into 0.7500 and even complete the full unwind to the 0.7330 area from here. Thursday's employment data from Australia is the key data risk for the week.
Source: Saxo Bank

This pair is posting a new two-month low today as JPY crosses were offered on the margin to begin the week as risk appetite soured. This bears are watching, but to pull interest from AUDUSD, we might need to see JPY outperforming USD (note the 113.00 area in USDJPY).
Source: Saxo Bank 


Tomorrow is possibly pivotal day for SEK traders with CPI slated for release and a sizable slowdown expected in the October data. This brings two-way risks as a lower-than-expected print could see the key EURSEK 9.80+ range resistance breached and open up for 10.00, while a hotter-than-expected figure could boost conviction that the range will hold.
Source: Saxo Bank

— Edited by John Acher

John J Hardy is head of forex strategy at Saxo Bank

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FX Board for Monday, November 13, 2017


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