Intraday (six-hours) – The USD index has hit and stalled at critical support (of 93.00). We are looking for a further move to the downside towards 92.45 (trend support). These corrective formations are notoriously hard to predict and normally in a 3-wave pattern. With this in mind, we look to sell into USD rallies today in most pairs.
One pair that has the opportunity to break lower (with a stronger USD) is AUDUSD.
Monthly – Mixed results for the last 23 months. Two important factors:
1. The move higher has been mixed and volatile, common in corrective sequences.
2. Last month posted a Bearish Outside Bar, often an indication that a top is in place.
Weekly – Posted a Bearish Outside Week after levels close to the 127.2% extension level of 0.8102 attracted sellers. We should take note of the reverse trend line support at 0.7695.
Intraday (six-hours) – Now starting to move lower in a choppy manner so we are looking to be close to the end of the trend. We have a trend line confluence area, from the weekly support and the trend of lower lows, so we do not look for and extension below 0.7695.
Intraday (30 minutes) – The moves to the downside are impulsive (aggressive). The moves to the upside are corrective (mixed and volatile). This still offers a downside bias. Although a break of trend line support at 0.7665 is needed to confirm the outlook, with a strong rejection of gains overnight, I am happy to get short.
Management and risk description
A move 0.7660 and I am lowering stop to entry
short at 0.7783
short-term (and keep an eye on the USD)
— Edited by Clare MacCarthy
Non-independent investment research disclaimer applies. Read more
A compiled overview of Trade Views provided on TradingFloor.com is found here