26 July 2016 at 7:57 GMT
- Analysts are in doubt how much stimulus to expect from BoJ
- Nintendo shares recover after sharp Monday drop on bad Pokémon Go news
- Apple not doing well, says Garnry, but it might do better than analysts think
- Bunds are up, but this might be temporary: Boye
- Click on this link for a replay of our morning call
By Clemens Bomsdorf
We start the day once again with looking East. In Japan,
market participants might not get what they earlier had hoped for, reports Christoffer Moltke-Leth from Saxo's Singapore desk
Japanese prime minister Shinzo Abe is expected to increase fiscal spending by only JPY 6 trillion. FX markets saw a bit of a selloff today and the safe-haven quality of JPY
is in demand, says Moltke-Leth.
Easing by the Bank of Japan is still expected by a vast majority of analysts, but its size might be smaller than anticipated so far.
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Source: Saxo Bank
“The market now seems to doubt we will get the big bazooka [by the Bank of Japan] on Friday,” says Moltke-Leth. John J Hardy, head of FX strategy at Saxo Bank
, says that the market seems to be of the opinion that the BoJ cannot really do anything and is looking at the fiscal side.
In the longer term, looking at USDJPY
calls could be a way to trade that sceptical stance, according to Hardy.
today is hit after yesterday’s gloomy CPI index, which collapsed more than expected. Stock markets are mixed today. Nintendo after the 18% decline yesterday opened another 6% lower today, but now is in plus.
But “it is Apple
day today” when it comes to stocks, says Peter Garnry, Saxo's head of equity strategy
. The US tech giant will report after closing tonight and while Garnry keeps his negative outlook he is more subdued than other analysts. “The sentiment might be too negative and Apple could surprise to the upside,” he says.
Saxo's fixed income trader Michael Boye
reports a “nervous tone” in early fixed income trading today. Bunds
strengthened quite a bit to 166.81, the 10-year yield is down to minus 0.05 again. As there is no obvious reason behind the move, it could be a potential short candidate, according to Boyle.
The chance for a Fed
rate hike has increased again to pre-Brexit
levels. Yesterday’s weekly ECB
update on corporate buying shows finally a slowdown in buying to €300m per day compared to €400m earlier.
Yesterday many pressed the SELL button when it comes to their Nintendo shares. Today, after a further collapse in stock price, the share is in the green again... so far. Photo: iStock
Clemens Bomsdorf is consulting editor at TradingFloor.com
Editor’s note: From the Floor takes advantage of TradingFloor.com's unique real-time access to Saxo Bank’s various trading desks around the globe to put our community in touch with the developments that matter to their portfolios