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Video / 13 October 2017 at 7:21 GMT

From the Floor: USD wobbles, metals shine and equities fizz

#SaxoStrats
  • EU says trade talks could start in December if UK improves Brexit divorce offer
  • USD is wobbly ahead of hurricane-affected US CPI and retail sales data
  • Gold challenges resistance at $1297.50 on weaker dollar and lower yields 
  • Mildly bullish inventory report helps oil to stabilise 
  • Energy and metals enjoy their best week of the past six weeks
  • US technology sector looks bubbly after above-trend gains

strats
 
By Clare MacCarthy

The dollar is ending the week with a bit of a wobble as the market awaits US inflation and retailsales data (12:30 GMT) which are expected to be skewed by the recent hurricanes off Florida and the Mexican Gulf, says John Hardy, Saxo's head of forex strategy. Sterling, meanwhile, which has been dogged in recent weeks by continual concern about Brexit is getting support from a new conciliatory tone by the EU negotiators who now say that trade talks could start in December if the UK improves its divorce offer.

Over in the equities world, Peter Garnry, head of equity strategy, points out that the US technology sector is starting to look a tad bubbly as recent gains have taken the index above its trend from 2010: "It's not alarming yet but investors need to be careful here, potentially hedging some downside would be prudent," he says.

crude oil
 Pic: Shutterstock

Commodities, meanwhile, are doing well and have put in their best week out of the past six weeks thanks to strength in the energy and metals sectors, says Ole Hansen, Saxo's head of commodity strategy. The weaker dollar is providing overall support for commodities, especially gold, which is trying for a second day running to break resistance at $1297.50/oz. Besides the weak dollar and lower yields in the wake of the dovish  FOMC minutes earlier this week, gold is benefiting from safe-haven interest sparked by president Donald Trump's increasing irascibility and squabbling with everybody from his own cabinet to the Iran government, Hansen says.


For more on Forex, commodities and equities listen to today's Morning Call in full via the above video link.
13 October
Ole Hansen Ole Hansen
Oil focus today: Trump is to lay out his plan about the Iran nuclear deal today at a 1645 GMT speech at the White House.
http://www.nasdaq.com/article/trump-expected-to-make-us-move-against-iran-nuclear-deal-20171013-00018
13 October
AlexF AlexF
Short-term recommendation: Short USD, long
TRY
12 October 2017
Chief Investment Office WM
Jonas David, CFA, analyst
Michael Bolliger, analyst
After the recent weakness of the Turkish lira, we see some recovery potential as
headwinds should fade. We recommend opening a short US dollar (USD), long
Turkish lira (TRY) position at 3.66 with a target of 3.50 and a stop-loss at 3.76.
This short-term trade idea has an investment horizon of one to two months.
In the last month, the Turkish lira depreciated by more than 6% against
the US dollar. Higher interest rates in the US and broad dollar strength put
pressure on vulnerable emerging markets like Turkey. The country's persistent
current account deficit will keep the lira exposed to setbacks whenever global
conditions deteriorate. After the recent repricing of the near-term interest rate
outlook in the US, however, some stabilization looks likely.
13 October
AlexF AlexF
UBS CIO trade Idea
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