Video

Playlist: XAUEUR

Show less
46:49
Technical analysis webinar – A view of the market: Larsson
Kim Cramer Larsson
15 August 2018 at 14:37 GMT
2:42
The week ahead in macro — #SaxoStrats
Kay Van-Petersen
09 July 2018 at 9:43 GMT
2:51
Shorting precious metals into Fed hike — #SaxoStrats
Kay Van-Petersen
04 June 2018 at 10:13 GMT
57:08
Commodities Update webinar — #SaxoStrats
Ole Hansen
25 May 2018 at 14:18 GMT
11:00
From the Floor: Dollar sharply lower after FOMC
#SaxoStrats
22 March 2018 at 8:47 GMT
3:24
Looking to buy gold: O'Hare
Steve O'Hare - First 4 Trading
22 March 2018 at 8:09 GMT
2:57
Looking at gold ahead of FOMC: Van-Petersen
Kay Van-Petersen
21 March 2018 at 9:49 GMT
Video / 18 June 2018 at 7:49 GMT

From the Floor: Tariff war impacts prices, sentiment – #SaxoStrats

#SaxoStrats
   • Trade wars USD-positive, risk-negative so far
   • A break of support in EM equities could see prices tumble
   • Chinese tariffs set to target US 'red states'

SaxoStrats
By Michael McKenna

Last week's central bank-driven volatility has been followed by an increasingly intense wave of tariff threats as China looks to hit US 'red states' (Republican voters) with soybeans, corn, oil, gasoline, coal, and liquid natural gas all potential targets. 

"The trade war theme is risk-negative and USD-positive," says Saxo Bank Head of Forex Strategy John Hardy, who adds that the Japanese yen is not seeing its customary risk-off bid, most likely due to the country's enormous current account surplus.

"Emerging markets in Asia have been hardest hit with economies tied to Chinese imports [getting the worst of it]," says Hardy. According to Saxo Bank Head of Equity Strategy Peter Garnry, EM equities closed Friday just above their May lows and could head further still on a break of this support level.

"In general we see stocks off to a weak start this week on the new tariffs," says Garnry, adding that he is keeping one eye on the long-rumoured tariffs by the US against the European auto industry.

S&P 500:
S&P 500
Source: Saxo Bank

Saxo Bank Head of Commodity Strategy Ole Hansen reports that commodity prices are lower on the dollar strength and trade concerns, with silver putting in a particularly noteworthy performance last week.

"Silver had a crazy week with an eight-fold increase in bullish fund bets Tuesday giving way to the largest sell-off in over 18 months Friday. We also saw gold break below key support at $1,286/oz while oil traded lower in response to the aforementioned themes as well as the upcoming Opec meeting in Vienna.

The ambient volatility is also impacting bond markets, which many investors are watching closely for signs of an impending downturn across asset classes. According to Saxo fixed income specialist Althea Spinozzi, the real problem can be seen in the US yield curve, which is at its flattest in 100 years.

Michael McKenna is head of editorial at Saxo Bank 

Disclaimer

The Saxo Bank Group entities each provide execution-only service and access to Tradingfloor.com permitting a person to view and/or use content available on or via the website is not intended to and does not change or expand on this. Such access and use are at all times subject to (i) The Terms of Use; (ii) Full Disclaimer; (iii) The Risk Warning; (iv) the Rules of Engagement and (v) Notices applying to Tradingfloor.com and/or its content in addition (where relevant) to the terms governing the use of hyperlinks on the website of a member of the Saxo Bank Group by which access to Tradingfloor.com is gained. Such content is therefore provided as no more than information. In particular no advice is intended to be provided or to be relied on as provided nor endorsed by any Saxo Bank Group entity; nor is it to be construed as solicitation or an incentive provided to subscribe for or sell or purchase any financial instrument. All trading or investments you make must be pursuant to your own unprompted and informed self-directed decision. As such no Saxo Bank Group entity will have or be liable for any losses that you may sustain as a result of any investment decision made in reliance on information which is available on Tradingfloor.com or as a result of the use of the Tradingfloor.com. Orders given and trades effected are deemed intended to be given or effected for the account of the customer with the Saxo Bank Group entity operating in the jurisdiction in which the customer resides and/or with whom the customer opened and maintains his/her trading account. When trading through Tradingfloor.com your contracting Saxo Bank Group entity will be the counterparty to any trading entered into by you. Tradingfloor.com does not contain (and should not be construed as containing) financial, investment, tax or trading advice or advice of any sort offered, recommended or endorsed by Saxo Bank Group and should not be construed as a record of ourtrading prices, or as an offer, incentive or solicitation for the subscription, sale or purchase in any financial instrument. To the extent that any content is construed as investment research, you must note and accept that the content was not intended to and has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such, would be considered as a marketing communication under relevant laws. Please read our disclaimers:
- Notification on Non-Independent Invetment Research
- Full disclaimer

Check your inbox for a mail from us to fully activate your profile. No mail? Have us re-send your verification mail