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From the Floor: Oil steady on reports of Opec deal — #SaxoStrats

NOK tumbling after weak retail sales report
GBP resurgent on Brexit breakthroughs
China manufacturing PMI data beat expectations
Industrial metals fail to find a bid on Chinese print
Oil steady on Opec deal news, focus on US shale

By Michael McKenna 

Crude oil sentiment was pinned to the wall this week on doubts that Russia would agree to an extension of the production cut deal with Opec. At issue, supposedly, were exemptions for Iran, Nigeria, and Libya, as well as the nature of the deal's phase-out mechanism.
As we head into the meeting today, however, the latest reports indicate that Moscow is willing to agree to a nine-month extension.

The news is oil-supportive, of course, but prices remain steady on the news as the focus returns to the US shale production made more feasible by the price-boosting deal. According to Saxo Bank head of commodity strategy Ole Hansen, the key support levels for WTI and Brent lie at $56.40 and $62.20/barrel, respectively.

WTI crude oil:
Crude oil
Source: Saxo Bank 

On the FX front, Saxo Bank head of forex strategy John J Hardy reports that EURNOK is spiking on a weak retail sales report while the kiwi, which recently appeared to be bouncing back from its election-linked tumble, is back at financial crisis lows on weak business confidence data and market dissatisfaction with the new left-leaning, anti-immigration government.

Sterling continues its surge as new reports indicate that Brexit talks are finally moving forward with the Northern Ireland border issue seeing progress.

The Hang Seng index headed 1.5% lower to 29.177,35 today, well below the 29,600 area identified by Saxo Bank head of equity strategy Peter Garnry last week. "It looks like the US tech selloff has spread to China," says Garnry, who notes that despite today's manufacturing PMI beat (51.8 versus 51.4 expected), Chinese data still lag behind the latest releases from Europe and the US.

The PMI result also failed to provide much support for industrial metals, notes Ole Hansen.

For more on forex, equities, and commodities, watch today's Morning Call in its entirety above.
Morning in Vienna: The latest reports indicate that an Opec deal  
extension is forthcoming. Photo: Shutterstock

Michael McKenna is senior editor at Saxo Bank
Ole Hansen Ole Hansen
Provisional schedule for today's Opec meeting in Vienna:
9:30 Ministers start arriving at the OPEC secretariat in Vienna
10:00 The opening session begins with the customary giant press conference in which journalists attempt to interview all the ministers simultaneously
10:30 That's followed by opening speeches by the OPEC president, currently the Saudi minister, and the secretary general
12:00 Ministers begin closed-door deliberations without their aides
15:00 The meeting of OPEC and non-OPEC countries starts
17:00 Closing press conference

Latest articles from Bloomberg:
OPEC and Russia Ready to Extend Oil-Supply Cuts Through 2018:
Four Possible Scenarios to Watch for at OPEC's Meeting in Vienna:

Follow #OOTT hashtag on Twitter for all the latest updates
Ole Hansen Ole Hansen
With all Opec ministers agreeing to a nine-month extension the closed door meeting beginning shortly will be regarded as a less important starter ahead of the main course at 15:00 CET when Russia joins the table.


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