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Video / 07 June 2018 at 7:34 GMT

From the Floor: Market calling for a hawkish ECB

#SaxoStrats
   • Italian yields on the rise as markets look to hawkish ECB
   • Brazil in political crisis as EM currencies struggle
   • S&P 500 poised to push for new local highs

SaxoStrats


(Editor's note: due to technical difficulties, there are some 
audio issues in today's Morning Call video.)

By Michael McKenna

Saxo Bank Head of FX Strategy John Hardy reports that the euro continues its ascent despite Italian yields continuing to rise with key EURUSD flashpoints at 118.25, 119.25, and of course 1.20.

"It's interesting to see that the European Central Bank appears to be playing hardball with the populist Italian government," says Hardy, adding that markets appear to be pricing in expectations for a hawkish central bank move tied to the end of ECB QE at the bank's June 14 meeting.

Globally, the decline in emerging market currencies is presently centred on Brazil where extreme levels of political unrest place the country at risk of further currency volatility.

In terms of European shares, Saxo Bank head of equity strategy Peter Garnry says that Casino, Carrefour, Santander, AB InBev, and Edenred maintain noteworthy levels of exposure to the Brazilian market.

Elsewhere in stocks, Garnry reports that the US S&P 500 is 12 points away from the most recent "air pocket" seen in March with Saxo's equities head stating that he expects the benchmark US index to push through into this area.

The key element for markets at large remains risk sentiment, says Hardy, with US yields raising a question mark on this front as they have returned to the pivotal 3% area.

S&P 500:
S&P 500
Source: Bloomberg
07 June
Logich Logich
Perhaps Saxo should consider recording the morning call and publish it afterwards, as there is no possibility of interaction anyway as there are often technical problems - especially with the sound. In particular, the sound of John Hardy is often very swinging, bad and hard to understand. - By doing so, Saxo Bank could deliver a better Morning call and secure it against breakdown and poor sound quality. And as listeners, we could enjoy a greater benefit from the morning call. - No reason for live, as there is no possibility for interaction anyway. - Only drawdown would be, if it would not be possible to publice at the current time of day. - Please consider.
07 June
Clare Mac Carthy Clare Mac Carthy
Hi Logich, we already include a replay of the entire morning call, usually within 30 to 40 minutes of it ending. Click on the icon in the top photo of this article.
07 June
Logich Logich
Care Mac Carthy - I know, but that doesn't solve the often occurring problem of technical issues and specific the bad sound quality. (In particular John Hardy)
- By recording and publishing afterwards Saxo would be able to ensure a good quality before release. - My suggestions it therefore not specific regarding today's call, but a general suggestion.
07 June
Clare Mac Carthy Clare Mac Carthy
Hi Logitech – We understand and will implement a complete revamp in the not-too-distant future.
07 June
Logich Logich
Hi Clare. - Happy to hear Saxo acknowledges the issues and will do something about it. - Thx.
07 June
Clare Mac Carthy Clare Mac Carthy
Thanks L. :-)

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