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Video / 13 June 2017 at 7:24 GMT

From the Floor: Interesting moves in GBP and tech — #SaxoStrats

#SaxoStrats
• New coalition May trying to build could potentially lead to softer Brexit – Hardy
• EU challenging London as financial hub – Hardy
• CAD reacted strongly to positive BoC comments on the economy – Hardy
• 'It looks like we are getting very solid bids and a smooth rise in US tech today' – Garnry
• For the S&P500 higher highs are still on the cards – Cramer Larsson
• Oil recovering, but prices need to climb higher before we are in safe territory – Hansen
• 'Death cross' in Brent mainly creates headlines only – Hansen


SaxoStrats
By Clemens Bomsdorf

Over the coming days one should be prepared to see further moves in GBP, potentially downwards. 

Presenting a euro chart, technical analyst Kim Cramer-Larsson says that after last week’s election EURGBP could be heading to 0.90. In his opinion that is at least a possibility once it goes above the 0.8850 area.

EURGBP
Source: Saxo Bank
 
As such, one indicator to be watched today is the UK CPI figure.

Politics are as least as important as technical here. After her tremendously bad election result, UK prime minister Theresa May is “desperately [trying] to get together some kind of coalition, which could potentially lead to a softer Brexit,” says John Hardy, head of FX strategy at Saxo Bank.

However, a clear negotiation stance from the UK is still lacking. Of course the EU has a say in this as well and it will use its negotiation power. News reports today claim that any euro-denominated derivatives could be required to be cleared and settled within the EU. 

“This of course puts the whole London financial sector in doubt,” Hardy says.

Nasdaq
Source: Saxo Bank
 
Rather large moves were also seen in tech stocks these days and as Peter Garnry, Saxo's head of equity strategy, puts it “the big question today is whether the tech correction is over.” The tech sector was down 5% since Friday. 

“It looks like we are getting very solid bids and a smooth rise in US tech,” he says. 

Larsson sees a very limited short-term upside. He also says that “in the S&P500 we should still see higher highs,” adding that 2,450-60 remains possible. 

S&P500
Source: Saxo Bank
 
In the oil market we have seen a recovery since Friday as Saudi Arabia has been cutting production, mentions Ole Hansen, Saxo's head of commodity strategy. The "death cross" in Brent is a bigger deal in the headlines than in trade, and should not be overrated. 

“Brent and WTI still need to climb higher before we are in safe territory,” according to Hansen. 

In his view the former needs to break above $50.20/barrel and the later above $47.80/barrel. 

Clemens Bomsdorf is consulting editor at TradingFloor.com

Editor’s note: From the Floor takes advantage of TradingFloor.com's unique real-time access to Saxo Bank’s various trading desks around the globe to put our community in touch with the developments that matter to their portfolios 

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