Playlist: Gold December 2018

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Technical analysis webinar – A view of the market: Larsson
Kim Cramer Larsson
15 August 2018 at 14:37 GMT
The week ahead in macro — #SaxoStrats
Kay Van-Petersen
09 July 2018 at 9:43 GMT
Shorting precious metals into Fed hike — #SaxoStrats
Kay Van-Petersen
04 June 2018 at 10:13 GMT
Commodities Update webinar — #SaxoStrats
Ole Hansen
25 May 2018 at 14:18 GMT
From the Floor: Dollar sharply lower after FOMC
22 March 2018 at 8:47 GMT
Looking to buy gold: O'Hare
Steve O'Hare - First 4 Trading
22 March 2018 at 8:09 GMT
Looking at gold ahead of FOMC: Van-Petersen
Kay Van-Petersen
21 March 2018 at 9:49 GMT
Video / 09 April 2018 at 7:34 GMT

From the Floor: How long can Treasuries hold these levels?

   • Multiple factors primed to push US bond prices lower
   • Oil torn between trade, geopolitics as Middle Eastern tensions rise
   • FX markets remain calm in light of equity volatility
   • Sterling remains strong, EURGBP at a key support level
   • Bounce in metals could benefit silver more than gold

By Michael McKenna

US Treasury bonds are in focus after the 10-year yield closed last week just shy of the 2.80% level; two-year Treasuries closed around 2.26%.

In Saxo Bank fixed income specialist Althea Spinozzi's view, these levels appear depressed due to the presence of multiple risk factors on the horizon. "We foresee the US Treasury needing to issue new bonds to cover deficit spending, with sentiment surrounding the US/China another key factor. At present, foreigners hold 42% of US dept – the lowest such reading since 2003," says Spinozzi.

"Ultimately there are more reasons to widen than to tighten here," Spinozzi concludes.

In the commodities space, Saxo Bank's Ole Hansen reports that crude oil prices are caught between trade and geopolitics as tensions in the Middle East rise on what the US alleges to be a chemical attack by Syrian government forces in Ghouta.

"Oil remains rangebound but we see the outlook as skewed towards finding support, particularly given over one million lots of speculative longs," says Hansen.

Precious metals are also in focus given the volatility seen in both geopolitics and equity markets, says Hansen, with silver likely primed to benefit more than gold from a metals rally. "Funds are holding a record short in silver with open interest at a record high; major moving averages are providing significant resistance between $16.55 and $16.77/oz," notes Saxo's head of commodity strategy.

In forex, Saxo Bank head of FX strategy John Hardy is focusing on sterling given its strongest weekly close in several quarters, although he notes that the FX space has proven resilient to the volatility seen in stocks.

"We are watching 0.87 in EURGBP as there is significant room to the downside if this level breaks," says Hardy.

Source: Saxo Bank

On the data front, the Norwegian CPI release Tuesday and the US CPI and Federal Open Market Committee minutes Wednesday represent the key event risks for forex traders.

Michael McKenna is head of editorial content at Saxo Bank 
Michael S. McKenna Michael S. McKenna
Editor's note: we apologise for the technical errors that plagued today's live Morning Call (causing users to be bumped from the session) and are working to fix the issue.
Logich Logich
Please also try to solve John Hardy´s bad mic. issue. - The sound of him is often and also today quit bad now and then, whereas ie. Ole Hansen is steady and powerful.


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