Playlist: Brent Crude Spreads Jul-19 Aug-19

Show less
Commodities Update webinar — #SaxoStrats
Ole Hansen
25 May 2018 at 14:18 GMT
Trading WTI oil following Syrian air strikes — #SaxoStrats
Kay Van-Petersen
16 April 2018 at 8:25 GMT
From the Floor: Dollar sharply lower after FOMC
22 March 2018 at 8:47 GMT
From the Floor: Expectations at a high ahead of FOMC
21 March 2018 at 8:29 GMT
Video / 15 March 2018 at 8:37 GMT

From the Floor: Gold hangs in the balance as geo-risks rise

   • Implied volatility collapsing, US surprise index positive
   • NOK in focus on expected hawkishness from Norges Bank
   • Crude held in rage by rising US production, robust demand
   • Geopolitical risk index surges to 15-year high
   • 'We remain bullish above $1,285/oz": Hansen

By Michael McKenna

Between the US-Russia imbroglio, an unstable Syrian situation, North Korea, and a protectionist-leaning Trump administration, geopolitical risk is at a 15-year high with the related index at its highest level since the eve of the 2003 invasion of Iraq.

 "We see the gold trade experiencing jitters as these forces contend with the March 21 Federal Open Market Committee meeting [and its near-certain interest rate hike]," says Saxo Bank head of commodity strategy Ole Hansen.

"We remain bullish above $1,285/oz," concludes Saxo's commodities head, noting the metal's current $1,300-$1,340/oz range.

XAUUSD (hourly):
Source: Saxo Bank

In other commodities, Hansen points to crude oil needing a break as well with the latest EIA report due this afternoon. Hansen points to rising shale production and continued robust demand as the forces working bidirectionally on oil.

In agriculture, Hansen points to soybean prices hitting a 4.5-month low versus corn on speculation that US farmers are set to plant more soybeans than corn for the first time since 1983.

"An elevated fund long, a record Brazilian crop, and the risk of Chinese tariffs are among the factors weighing on soybean prices," says Saxo's commodities head.

In FX, Saxo Bank head of forex strategy John Hardy reports that the NOK is in traders' crosshairs this morning ahead of the Norges Bank rate announcement at 09:00 GMT.

"This 9.52 level in EURNOK is pivotal and we see investors looking at NOKSEK and EURNOK ahead of what is expected to be another hawkish outing from the Norwegian central bank".

In dollar terms, the US surprise index remains positive with the market seeing a collapse in implied volatility even as the protectionism-inclined Trump administration continues to provide plenty of headline drama in an already unstable global atmosphere.

Michael McKenna is head of editorial content at Saxo Bank


The Saxo Bank Group entities each provide execution-only service and access to permitting a person to view and/or use content available on or via the website is not intended to and does not change or expand on this. Such access and use are at all times subject to (i) The Terms of Use; (ii) Full Disclaimer; (iii) The Risk Warning; (iv) the Rules of Engagement and (v) Notices applying to and/or its content in addition (where relevant) to the terms governing the use of hyperlinks on the website of a member of the Saxo Bank Group by which access to is gained. Such content is therefore provided as no more than information. In particular no advice is intended to be provided or to be relied on as provided nor endorsed by any Saxo Bank Group entity; nor is it to be construed as solicitation or an incentive provided to subscribe for or sell or purchase any financial instrument. All trading or investments you make must be pursuant to your own unprompted and informed self-directed decision. As such no Saxo Bank Group entity will have or be liable for any losses that you may sustain as a result of any investment decision made in reliance on information which is available on or as a result of the use of the Orders given and trades effected are deemed intended to be given or effected for the account of the customer with the Saxo Bank Group entity operating in the jurisdiction in which the customer resides and/or with whom the customer opened and maintains his/her trading account. When trading through your contracting Saxo Bank Group entity will be the counterparty to any trading entered into by you. does not contain (and should not be construed as containing) financial, investment, tax or trading advice or advice of any sort offered, recommended or endorsed by Saxo Bank Group and should not be construed as a record of ourtrading prices, or as an offer, incentive or solicitation for the subscription, sale or purchase in any financial instrument. To the extent that any content is construed as investment research, you must note and accept that the content was not intended to and has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such, would be considered as a marketing communication under relevant laws. Please read our disclaimers:
- Notification on Non-Independent Invetment Research
- Full disclaimer

Check your inbox for a mail from us to fully activate your profile. No mail? Have us re-send your verification mail