- • EURUSD trades in very tight ranges with volatiltiy absent from FX markets
- • "Ridiculous" slate of ECB speakers on the calendar, but expectations low: Hardy
- • RBNZ was marginally more hawkish than expected: Hardy
- • Oil holding up well despite record US production: Hansen
- • Funds unlikely to make any major adjustments as long as Brent stays above $60/b
- • Gold trading a touch firmer as USD weakens on tax-reform worries
- • With Trump in office for one year, gold trades basically flat, stuck in a range
By John Acher
Volatility has collapsed in the foreign-exchange markets, which has kept EURUSD trading in exceptionally tight ranges this week, and virtually nothing is on the horizon to upset the complacency, Saxo Bank's strategy team says on Thursday.
EURUSD traded within a 28-pip range on Wednesday, as expectations of central bank dynamism have vanished, says Saxo Bank's FX strategy chief John J Hardy.
"The main driver is a lack of a sense of anything that is going to shift the forward guidance for central banks,” says Hardy.
The macroeconomic data, while supportive, are nothing to cause worry about inflation, "according to the market any way," says Hardy.
EURUSD tightly rangebound
Source: Saxo Bank
The USD rally is in danger and needs to pick up before weekend or it could get stuck back into neutral, Hardy adds.
Overnight the Reserve Bank of New Zealand was "marginally more hawkish than expected," Hardy says.
Today's calendar includes a "ridiculous raft" of European Central Bank speakers, including Coeure, Mersch, Constancio, Villeroy de Galhau, Weidmann and Lautenschlaeger. "I don't think any of these speeches are notable," Hardy says.
Oil prices are showing resilience despite Wednesday's data showing US production at record levels, says Saxo Bank's commodities strategy chief Ole Hansen.
Oil initially traded lower on Wednesday on the surprise US oil stocks increase before a fire on a Shell platform in Gulf of Mexico triggered a brief pump and dump, Hansen says.
In terms of support, $62/barrel for Brent is initially key, but risk of heavier liquidation by funds looks limited as long as Brent stays above $60/barrel, Hansen says.
Crude oil holding up well despite record US output
Source: Saxo Bank
Gold, meanwhile, traded a touch firmer on Wednesday on worries that the
US tax reform could be delayed due conflicting proposals between the Senate and the House of Representatives.
With Donald Trump in office as US president now for one whole year, gold is virtually unchanged form a year ago, Hansen adds.
"It is stuck in the middle and trading sideways. There is no spark right now to reignite it," Hansen says.