Video

Playlist

Show less
46:49
Technical analysis webinar – A view of the market: Larsson
Kim Cramer Larsson
Wednesday at 14:37 GMT
2:06
A closer eye on Fang stocks — #SaxoStrats
Kay Van-Petersen
06 August 2018 at 11:18 GMT
2:01
The week ahead in macro — #SaxoStrats
Kay Van-Petersen
06 August 2018 at 8:38 GMT
30:41
Macro Monday week 32: US & China inflation, RBA & RBNZ
Kay Van-Petersen
06 August 2018 at 7:39 GMT
15:29
From the Floor: Trading the trade war
#SaxoStrats
06 August 2018 at 7:32 GMT
10:18
From the Floor: EM, China feeling the heat
#SaxoStrats
03 August 2018 at 7:31 GMT
12:30
From the Floor: Why is TSLA up by 9.36%?
#SaxoStrats
02 August 2018 at 7:48 GMT
12:47
From the Floor: Trump ups the trade war ante
#SaxoStrats
01 August 2018 at 8:00 GMT
16:55
From the Floor: BoJ tweaks policy — #SaxoStrats
#SaxoStrats
31 July 2018 at 7:39 GMT
2:56
The week ahead in macro — #SaxoStrats
Kay Van-Petersen
30 July 2018 at 8:09 GMT
Video / 17 May 2018 at 7:25 GMT

From the Floor: Euro tanks as Italian leaders challenge EU

#SaxoStrats
   • New Italian government plans to ask for $250 billion debt write-off
   • US yield curve lifts with 30-year yield rising to 3.25% region
   • 'EM countries are in worse shape than 2008': Peter Garnry

SaxoStrats
By Michael McKenna

Markets and the euro saw only muted moves when the anti-establishment Five Star/League coalition took power, but that has changed now that the country's new leaders have started to talk about their policy plans.

The major draft idea pushing EUR lower and Italian bond yields higher today is a request for a $250 billion debt write-off from the European Central Bank, but discussions on potentially abolishing the European Union's rule on keeping budget deficits below 3% of economic output, as well as plans to limit immigration, are weighing on sentiment as well.

"The market is presently trying to price in the negative news," says Saxo Bank fixed income specialist Althea Spinozzi, while Saxo head of forex strategy John Hardy notes that the Italian yield blowout is dragging the peripheral spreads complex wider as well.

Debt
Source: Bloomberg

As far as the euro goes, Hardy says that traders should watch EURGBP for a potential re-evaluation of Brexit Britain next to an existentially challenged EU. Hardy also reports that traders should keep an eye on Brent crude as it nears $80/barrel, noting that higher oil prices represent a "severe growth tax" for the world, particularly in a strong USD environment.

The stronger dollar is certainly impacting emerging markets with Saxo Bank head of equity strategy Peter Garnry saying that "EM countries are in worse shape than in 2008, and given the cracks appearing in Turkey and Argentina, investors should consider the possibility of an EM crisis."

On the Turkish front, Hardy concurs, stating that he is keeping a watchful eye on TRY ahead of the June 24 elections.

Finally, Tencent has reported strong earnings with shares up 5% on 48% year-on-year revenue growth and the WeChat user base now above one billion.

Disclaimer

The Saxo Bank Group entities each provide execution-only service and access to Tradingfloor.com permitting a person to view and/or use content available on or via the website is not intended to and does not change or expand on this. Such access and use are at all times subject to (i) The Terms of Use; (ii) Full Disclaimer; (iii) The Risk Warning; (iv) the Rules of Engagement and (v) Notices applying to Tradingfloor.com and/or its content in addition (where relevant) to the terms governing the use of hyperlinks on the website of a member of the Saxo Bank Group by which access to Tradingfloor.com is gained. Such content is therefore provided as no more than information. In particular no advice is intended to be provided or to be relied on as provided nor endorsed by any Saxo Bank Group entity; nor is it to be construed as solicitation or an incentive provided to subscribe for or sell or purchase any financial instrument. All trading or investments you make must be pursuant to your own unprompted and informed self-directed decision. As such no Saxo Bank Group entity will have or be liable for any losses that you may sustain as a result of any investment decision made in reliance on information which is available on Tradingfloor.com or as a result of the use of the Tradingfloor.com. Orders given and trades effected are deemed intended to be given or effected for the account of the customer with the Saxo Bank Group entity operating in the jurisdiction in which the customer resides and/or with whom the customer opened and maintains his/her trading account. When trading through Tradingfloor.com your contracting Saxo Bank Group entity will be the counterparty to any trading entered into by you. Tradingfloor.com does not contain (and should not be construed as containing) financial, investment, tax or trading advice or advice of any sort offered, recommended or endorsed by Saxo Bank Group and should not be construed as a record of ourtrading prices, or as an offer, incentive or solicitation for the subscription, sale or purchase in any financial instrument. To the extent that any content is construed as investment research, you must note and accept that the content was not intended to and has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such, would be considered as a marketing communication under relevant laws. Please read our disclaimers:
- Notification on Non-Independent Invetment Research
- Full disclaimer

Check your inbox for a mail from us to fully activate your profile. No mail? Have us re-send your verification mail