- All-Country World Index equities up 30% in 2017
- Cyclical correction of 7% to 10% for equities due in Q1
- Catalan win for separatists is just noise for now
- Euro had a brief and shallow dip on Catalan vote
From the Floor is taking a break for the holidays, back again in early January.
We wish you a Merry Christmas and a Happy New Year.
By Clare MacCarthy
It's been an absolutely stellar year for equities worldwide in 2017 with the All-Country World Index advancing by no less than 30%. "It's been a fantastic year that has defied expectations," says Peter Garnry, Saxo's head of equity strategy, adding that this year was expected to have seen a collapse in volatility but that this just didn't happen and prices kept climbing. The US tax reform bill that was finally agreed this week will likely give further impetus to US stocks, particularly financials, Garnry says. "Most US financials aren't rated as positively as their peers in our Quant Model because of lower valuations and dividends so this is certainly a sector to watch."
However, though 2018 is set to start on a strong footing, the advance cannot continue forever. "Our main hypothesis is still for cyclical weakness some time in the first quarter," says Garny, adding that this should be in the magnitude of 7% to 10%.
Elsewhere, things are pretty quiet in the markets on this final day of trading before the holidays begin. "We had a brief dip in the euro overnight over the slim majority won by separatists in the Catalan election but this was a quick and rather shallow dip," says John J Hardy, Saxo's head of FX strategy. "This is not a sign that we're moving closer to Catalan independence, keep an eye on it but regard it as noise for the time being," Garnry adds.
Back in FX again, Hardy notes that "we've seen pretty limp action in the dollar, with the exception of USDJPY, but it's a bit difficult to gauge the importance of small breaks as we go into low-liquidity holiday mode".
Catalan independence is back in the picture again. But it's all just background noise for the time being.
Pic: Santi Rodriguez / Shutterstock.com