Video

Playlist

Show less
10:20
Morning Call: Softer dollar boosts commodities, stocks
#SaxoStrats
21 September 2018 at 7:40 GMT
10:35
Morning Call: Markets stabilise as trade tensions ease
#SaxoStrats
20 September 2018 at 8:28 GMT
8:51
Today’s FX chart analysis - video
John J Hardy
18 September 2018 at 10:28 GMT
9:42
Morning Call: Trump hits China with tariff plan
#SaxoStrats
18 September 2018 at 7:29 GMT
2:45
The week ahead in macro
Kay Van-Petersen
17 September 2018 at 8:11 GMT
27:58
Macro Monday week 38: Keep Global Macro and Carry On
Kay Van-Petersen
17 September 2018 at 8:02 GMT
10:00
Morning Call: US yield curve lifts, boosting dollar
#SaxoStrats
17 September 2018 at 7:23 GMT
43:30
Technical analysis webinar – A view of the market: Larsson
Kim Cramer Larsson
12 September 2018 at 14:44 GMT
11:15
Morning Call: Chinese shares fall further
#SaxoStrats
11 September 2018 at 8:36 GMT
11:34
Morning Call: USD, SEK in focus
#SaxoStrats
10 September 2018 at 7:49 GMT
2:47
The week ahead in macro
Kay Van-Petersen
10 September 2018 at 7:37 GMT
14:02
Morning Call: Is Japan next?
#SaxoStrats
07 September 2018 at 7:35 GMT
Video / 13 December 2017 at 8:24 GMT

From the Floor: Dollar slides on Alabama upset, FOMC up today

#SaxoStrats
   • Dollar retreats as Alabama upset shrinks Republican Senate majority
   • Hike priced in, yield curve in focus ahead of today's FOMC meeting
   • Brent surges on Scottish pipeline break, EIA and Opec reports due today
   • Market expects 2.2% headline, 1.8% core CPI reading from US
   • Gold and silver remain under significant pressure: Hansen

SaxoStrats
By Michael McKenna

Despite a pullback in support from centre-right Republicans, scandal-plagued Alabama Senate candidate Roy Moore had the backing of President Trump into his upset loss Tuesday. The outcome says a great many things about this specific cultural moment that we are pleased to report remain outside the scope of today's Morning Call, but in dollar terms we saw a pullback on the Republicans' Senate majority shrinking to 51.49.

"This means that tax reform needs to get done sooner rather than later," says Saxo Bank head of forex strategy John J Hardy, adding that the reform bill is now more likely to be placed in jeopardy by "establishment Republican" holdouts. 

(As to the likelihood of this, recall John McCain's vote against Obamacare repeal that came after years of campaigning for that precise legislative change...)

With Alabama behind us, the next big dollar catalysts come today in the form of a CPI reading at 1330 GMT and the Federal Open Market Committee's interest rate decision at 1900 GMT.

According to Hardy, the key things to watch here relate to the 2018 policy tightening path and the yield curve, with Saxo fixed income specialist Althea Spinozzi reporting that a more aggressive Fed (perhaps post-tax reform, if the growth and employment gains are in fact realised) would lead to a further flattening of the curve with each rate hike pushing up the short end.

Dollar index in the crosshairs:
USD index

Create your own charts with SaxoTraderGO click here to learn more

Source: Saxo Bank 

Beyond the Fed, Saxo Bank head of commodity strategy Ole Hansen reports that the pipeline rupture in Scotland's North Sea Tuesday pushed Brent crude prices to a 2½-year high on the biggest supply disruption (over 400,000 barrels/day for the next couple of weeks) this year.

Prices then declined, however, with Hansen adding that we may be seeing the first signs of end-of-year profit-taking.

"The short-term focus in Brent is $63/barrel," concludes Hansen, noting that today sees the release of both Opec's monthly report this morning and the latest stockpiles data from the US Energy Information Administration at 1530 GMT.

One final thing to note, says Hansen, is that the EIA has just raised its forecasts for US production and non-Opec supply growth in 2018.

For more on crude oil, precious metals, forex markets, and bonds, watch today's Morning Call in full.

Montgomery, Alabama
Montgomery, Alabama: The prospect of another Republican body in the Senate wasn't enough to distract voters from the seedy accusations facing Roy Moore. Photo: Shutterstock

Michael McKenna is senior editor at Saxo Bank
13 December
Market Predator Market Predator
@Althea: Personally, I believe that flattening of yield curve is serious aspect of current Market. Interesting development can be seen also before 2008 fin. crisis. Could current status signal something?
13 December
Althea Spinozzi Althea Spinozzi
Hi Market Predator, yes it is true that levels are in line with the ones found before 2018 however it is hard to say whether a flat yield curve alone signals an imminent recession. I believe that a yield curve needs to be seen together with core inflation data, which until now have been quite weak. It would be interesting to see what happens in the next few months, however I still believe that short maturities may represent an opportunity at the moment. By staying short duration, it is possible to lock in an ok yield and in the case there is a correction, proceeds would be available relatively soon in order to invest in better opportunities. The yield curve flattens during periods of economic expansion, however, during a recession the curve gets steeper - if the FED hikes interest rates the short part of the curve will push higher contributing to more flattening. Very hard to say when this viscious circle will end!
13 December
Market Predator Market Predator
OK, thanks for your response.
13 December
Althea Spinozzi Althea Spinozzi
Thanks to you MP always very nice seeing your comments :)

Disclaimer

The Saxo Bank Group entities each provide execution-only service and access to Tradingfloor.com permitting a person to view and/or use content available on or via the website is not intended to and does not change or expand on this. Such access and use are at all times subject to (i) The Terms of Use; (ii) Full Disclaimer; (iii) The Risk Warning; (iv) the Rules of Engagement and (v) Notices applying to Tradingfloor.com and/or its content in addition (where relevant) to the terms governing the use of hyperlinks on the website of a member of the Saxo Bank Group by which access to Tradingfloor.com is gained. Such content is therefore provided as no more than information. In particular no advice is intended to be provided or to be relied on as provided nor endorsed by any Saxo Bank Group entity; nor is it to be construed as solicitation or an incentive provided to subscribe for or sell or purchase any financial instrument. All trading or investments you make must be pursuant to your own unprompted and informed self-directed decision. As such no Saxo Bank Group entity will have or be liable for any losses that you may sustain as a result of any investment decision made in reliance on information which is available on Tradingfloor.com or as a result of the use of the Tradingfloor.com. Orders given and trades effected are deemed intended to be given or effected for the account of the customer with the Saxo Bank Group entity operating in the jurisdiction in which the customer resides and/or with whom the customer opened and maintains his/her trading account. When trading through Tradingfloor.com your contracting Saxo Bank Group entity will be the counterparty to any trading entered into by you. Tradingfloor.com does not contain (and should not be construed as containing) financial, investment, tax or trading advice or advice of any sort offered, recommended or endorsed by Saxo Bank Group and should not be construed as a record of ourtrading prices, or as an offer, incentive or solicitation for the subscription, sale or purchase in any financial instrument. To the extent that any content is construed as investment research, you must note and accept that the content was not intended to and has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such, would be considered as a marketing communication under relevant laws. Please read our disclaimers:
- Notification on Non-Independent Invetment Research
- Full disclaimer

Check your inbox for a mail from us to fully activate your profile. No mail? Have us re-send your verification mail