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10:20
Morning Call: Softer dollar boosts commodities, stocks
#SaxoStrats
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Morning Call: Markets stabilise as trade tensions ease
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Morning Call: US yield curve lifts, boosting dollar
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11:15
Morning Call: Chinese shares fall further
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11 September 2018 at 8:36 GMT
11:34
Morning Call: USD, SEK in focus
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10 September 2018 at 7:49 GMT
2:47
The week ahead in macro
Kay Van-Petersen
10 September 2018 at 7:37 GMT
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Morning Call: Is Japan next?
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07 September 2018 at 7:35 GMT
Video / 03 May 2018 at 7:49 GMT

From the Floor: Dollar confused by FOMC – #SaxoStrats

#SaxoStrats
  • FOMC was read as dovish by some due to slight language tweaks
  • USD rallied prior to the meeting then that unwound afterwards
  • EURNOK up against 9.70+ resistance before Norges Bank meeting
  • Stronger USD could keep Euro equities supported despite weak macro
  • Tesla similar to Apple: poor sentiment defied by unexpectedly good interim results
  • Crude oil remains stuck on rising stocks, Iran and dollar focus
  • Price drop over US stocks spike yesterday shows focus is on Trump's Iran decision
  • Gold still troubled by strong USD; Silver bounced strongly
saxostrats
 
By Clare MacCarthy

Ever-so-slight language tweaks in last night's statement from the Federal Open Market Committee left the market divided as to the Fed's intentions as some interpreted them as dovish and others as bearing a hawkish hue. "The dollar reaction as a bit difficult to gauge as there was quite a good rally going into the meeting which basically then unwound," says John J Hardy, Saxo’s head of forex strategy. 

FOMC
 
Elsewhere in FX, the Norwegian krone will be getting a good bit of attention today, Hardy says: "EURNOK is up against 9.70+ resistance ahead of the Norges Bank meeting and the nokky could be hit if there's a dovish tone".
Meanwhile, equities remain stuck in their range and also displayed a confused reaction to the FOMC statement, says Peter Garnry, Saxo’s head of equity strategy . "The Fed is sticking to its trajectory and is indicating that inflation and the economic outlook warrant a gradual rate hike cycle". However, underlying dollar strength should add to short-term momentum in European equities despite recent macro weakness.

Among individual stocks, electric vehicle maker Tesla is the standout among yesterday's crop of corporate earnings as it outdid expectations in both revenue and earnings per share.

Finally today, crude oil remains stuck in rut even though new data released yesterday revealed the biggest US stock increase since January. "This shows that the focus is firmly on May 12 and Trump's decision about the Iran nuclear deal," says Ole Hansen, Saxo’s head of commodity strategy.

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