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From the Floor: Copper crash raises Asia demand fears — #SaxoStrats

#SaxoStrats
   • AUD posts 'brutal reversal' on copper selloff
   • Hang Seng trying to find support above 28,000
   • Core bonds up as risk sentiment falters
   • Greek yields below 5% for first time since 2009
   • IATA forecasts profit growth for airlines

SaxoStrats
By Michael McKenna

Tuesday was copper's worst day in almost three years, reports Saxo bank head of commodity strategy Ole Hansen, with the industrial metal's price tumbling on a combination of factors.

"The selloff was mainly driven by the winter industrial lull, a rise in stockpiles, and concerns about waning Chinese demand as the government prepares to rein in spending," says Hansen, adding that accelerating selling came in once prices broke lower through the 3.05 support area.

"We are seeing some potential support at 2.96," conclude's Saxo's commodities head.

The crash in copper dragged the Australian dollar lower with Saxo head of FX strategy John J Hardy noting the precise technical turnaround at the 86 level in AUDJPY.

"Tuesday was a brutal reversal for the AUD," says Hardy, adding that forex markets in general are feeling the broad risk-off climate with the JPY stronger overnight.

AUDJPY:
AUDJPY

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Source: Saxo Bank 

Bond prices are edging higher along with the yen, reports Saxo Bank head of fixed income strategy Simon Fasdal, with German bunds enjoying a strong open with yields just below 0.30.

Although core bonds are lower in tandem with risk sentiment, Fasdal reports that Greek yields have moved below 5% for the first time since 2009 on the deal struck between Athens and its creditors over the weekend.

With Chinese demand in focus and risk sentiment weak, it's no surprise that the Hang Seng index continues to sell off, but Saxo Bank head of equity strategy Peter Garnry says that he sees the potential for support to come in just above the 28,000 level.

"The big question today is what copper prices say about China," says Garnry, "but I don't think demand is the whole story... taken as a whole, the data don't really point to a growth decline".

In single shares, Garnry points to Qantas, Lufthansa, and IAG as potential outperformers on the back of the IATA's call for increased airline profits in 2018.

For more on core bonds, US stocks, the dollar, and commodities, watch the full video of today's Morning Call above.

Copper
 The crash in copper prices has investors looking to Beijing. Photo: Shutterstock

Michael McKenna is senior editor at Saxo Bank

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