Video

Playlist

Show less
Video / 06 July 2018 at 7:27 GMT

From the Floor: Complacency rules, despite Trump's tariff debut

#SaxoStrats
image
 
Please note: Saxo's Morning Call is taking a summer break. We'll be back on July 30th.

By Clare MacCarthy

The US dollar is down, EM and smaller G-10 currencies have rebounded and risk appetite is healthily ahead, despite the fact that Trump's tariffs on $34 billion worth of Chinese goods come into force today and China has announced additional retaliatory levies on the US.

"There was very little reaction to the FOMC minutes overnight, the market seems distracted by the trade wars. Trump has been out campaigning for various republican mid-term candidates so the rhetoric is not backing down but the market is in very complacent mood," says John J Hardy, Saxo's Head of Forex Strategy. 

Some element of this complacency may be ascribed to the market's perception that fear of the tariffs might dissuade the Fed from hiking interest rates as much as was feared, Hardy adds. "Regardless, we have strong risk appetite, and the dollar is weakening as the correlation seems to be negative to risk for the dollar. We also have yen weakness."

The big ticket item on today's economic calendar is the monthly US employment report. "We're reaching levels coming into today's jobs report that are very interesting in a number of dollar pairs, including Aussie-dollar, euro-dollar and kiwi-dollar. This report looks important for setting up whether we're going to see the dollar spill over and extend its weakness for quite some time here or whether it's going to make a stand, Hardy concludes.

Disclaimer

The Saxo Bank Group entities each provide execution-only service and access to Tradingfloor.com permitting a person to view and/or use content available on or via the website is not intended to and does not change or expand on this. Such access and use are at all times subject to (i) The Terms of Use; (ii) Full Disclaimer; (iii) The Risk Warning; (iv) the Rules of Engagement and (v) Notices applying to Tradingfloor.com and/or its content in addition (where relevant) to the terms governing the use of hyperlinks on the website of a member of the Saxo Bank Group by which access to Tradingfloor.com is gained. Such content is therefore provided as no more than information. In particular no advice is intended to be provided or to be relied on as provided nor endorsed by any Saxo Bank Group entity; nor is it to be construed as solicitation or an incentive provided to subscribe for or sell or purchase any financial instrument. All trading or investments you make must be pursuant to your own unprompted and informed self-directed decision. As such no Saxo Bank Group entity will have or be liable for any losses that you may sustain as a result of any investment decision made in reliance on information which is available on Tradingfloor.com or as a result of the use of the Tradingfloor.com. Orders given and trades effected are deemed intended to be given or effected for the account of the customer with the Saxo Bank Group entity operating in the jurisdiction in which the customer resides and/or with whom the customer opened and maintains his/her trading account. When trading through Tradingfloor.com your contracting Saxo Bank Group entity will be the counterparty to any trading entered into by you. Tradingfloor.com does not contain (and should not be construed as containing) financial, investment, tax or trading advice or advice of any sort offered, recommended or endorsed by Saxo Bank Group and should not be construed as a record of ourtrading prices, or as an offer, incentive or solicitation for the subscription, sale or purchase in any financial instrument. To the extent that any content is construed as investment research, you must note and accept that the content was not intended to and has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such, would be considered as a marketing communication under relevant laws. Please read our disclaimers:
- Notification on Non-Independent Invetment Research
- Full disclaimer

Check your inbox for a mail from us to fully activate your profile. No mail? Have us re-send your verification mail