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Video / 25 June 2018 at 8:06 GMT

From the Floor: CNY driven sharply lower as trade war heats up

#SaxoStrats
   • 'Stay defensive equities, underweight EM': Garnry
   • US Treasury yields may have hit their peak: Spinozzi
   • TRY gains on Erdogan election victory: Hardy

SaxoStrats
By Michael McKenna

The People's Bank of China cut the amount of cash that some banks must hold as reserves by 50 basis points, releasing $108 billion in liquidity as the trade war threats from Washington continue to intensify.

Saxo bank Head of FX Strategy John Hardy notes that while the PBoC's stated objective was to aid small-to-medium-sized enterprises, the sharp decline in CNY may well be a response to the threat of trade war.

Elsewhere in FX, Hardy notes that TRY has gained on Erdogan's election win while the Japanese yen is in focus – particularly versus a euro weighed down by migration-driven uncertainty on German chancellor Merkel's political future – as risk-aversion spreads.

EURJPY
Source: Saxo Bank

Saxo Head of Equity Strategy Peter Garnry cautions investors to remain defensive equities overall and underweight emerging markets, noting that the major indices could see a drop to long-term support as the trade war plays out.

One other factor to watch is the 10-year Treasury yield, which Saxo bonds specialist Althea Spinozzi says might have hit a cycle peak, adding that only a resolution to the trade crisis looks likely to boost it further.

Finally, Garnry reports that European carmakers are in focus on trade war fears with Fed chair Jerome Powell out noting that the current spate of tit-for-tat threats have not yet entered the major macro data releases.

For more on equities, forex, and bonds, watch today's Morning Call in full.

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