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From the Floor: Bullish 'Trump trade' in retreat — #SaxoStrats

   • Dollar retreats on Trump's inaugural address
   • Gold gains for a fourth straight week on safe-haven buying
   • Yen surging higher, driving Topic and Nikkei 225 indices lower
   • 'We are going to see what America First really looks like': Larsen
   • USDJPY could head towards 110 at the lower extreme: hardy
   • Earnings forecasts show mild reaction to new administration
   • Macro remains mildly bullish supporting overweight cyclicals
   • US oil drillers add 29 rigs last week, biggest jump since April 2013

By Michael McKenna

President Donald Trump’s speech touted what the Guardian termed ’unapologetic nationalism’ as the way forward for the US, with the dollar beating a hasty retreat as the incoming administration vowed to ”buy American and hire American” in a strongly worded protest against economic globalisation.

The reaction in Asian markets was muted as most indices climbed higher while Japan headed lower on a stronger yen. The Japanese currency was boosted by the widespread buying of safe-haven assets including the yen and gold.

“JPY has room to run,” said Saxo Bank head of forex strategy John J Hardy on today’s Global Morning Call. Hardy added that 112 could be the next major support level in the pair with the bottom of the current Ichimoku cloud sitting around 110, potentially signalling a further downside target for the pair.

“The market was spooked by Trump’s embracing of protectionist rhetoric,” says Hardy, “and we saw bonds snapped up as incestors sold the greenback”.

In EURUSD, adds Saxo’s FX strategy chief, 108.00-50 is likely the next level to watch.


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Source: Saxo Bank 

Speaking live from Saxo’s FX Options desk in Copenhagen, Dan Juhl-Larsen said this morning that “we are going to see what ‘America First really looks like” in terms of asset movement, with Larsen adding that one-month USDJPY volatilities are currently trading at a “fair level” while risk-reversals remain cheap. “We think this could be an interesting time to get long USDJPY volatility,” concludes Larsen.

This second, post-Inauguration chapter in the “Trump trade” will likely provide a good degree of this week’s sentiment as far as US assets are concerned, while earnings season will provide the rest.

According to Saxo Bank head of equities strategy Peter Garnry, we are seeing a mild overall reaction to the incoming administration in US corporates as revenue growth remains low at 0.4% year-over-year while “we remain solid in terms of EBITDA”.

This week seems Microsoft, Alphabet (Google’s parent company), Johnson & Johnson, McDonald’s, Qualcomm, SAP, Novartis, and Santander reporting earnings. Concerning the latter, Garnry says that the Spanish bank’s performance in Spain and Brazil will be key to any upside surprise.

While crude oil remains rangebound, Saxo Bank head of commodities strategy Ole Hansen reports that US drillers added 29 rigs last week, the largest surge since April 2013, well before oil’s pronounced retreat from longer-term highs that started in mid-2014.

“Gold was lifted as well on a combination of a weaker dollar and uncertainty over Trump’s policy agenda,” says Hansen, adding that funds bought gold for the second straight week last week while increasing their gross short as well.

Hansen sees the current WTI oil range as lying between $50.70 and $53.50/barrel while Brent could range from $53.60 to $57/b.

Finally, notes Hansen, copper is in a $2.6-7/lb. range while coffee was bought for a second straight week while the net long remains 63% below its November 8 peak.

Beyond the rhetoric: incoming US president Donald Trump faces a rocky path as the US establishment and markets remain reserved on his nationalist intentions. Photo: iStock 

Michael McKenna is an editor at Saxo Bank

Editor’s note: From the Floor takes advantage of's unique real-time access to Saxo Bank’s various trading desks around the globe to put our community in touch with the developments that matter to their portfolios 
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We believe a nation without borders is not a state and an immigration system without enforcement is a loser. The border need be secured against drug cartels and illegal alien criminals.
We think a nation which retreats from its costs and commitments to it service personnel is a failure crushing the spirit and stories of veterans.
James C.Brown James C.Brown
Thank you for your post, I look for such article along time, today I find it finally. this post give me lots of advise it is very useful for me


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