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27 February 2017 at 8:16 GMT
From the Floor: Awaiting Trump's tax plan — #SaxoStrats
#SaxoStrats• Trump talking to Congress tomorrow very important for markets — Hardy
• Border adjustment tax would be dollar-positive, in short term at least — Hardy
• USDJPY probably most sensitive to Tuesday’s Trump speech — Hardy
• Gold supported by political risks and lower real yields — Hansen
• Oil had its tightest trading range (4-wk rolling av.) since January 2004 — Hansen
• US inflation data (PCE) out Wednesday another important event — Hansen
• Fed rate hike seen for May or June unless Yellen gets very aggressive — Boye
• Italian auctions today and tomorrow main European fixed-income event — Boye
By Clemens Bomsdorf
Oscars were handed out tonight with some disruption taking place as the best film initially and falsely was announced to be La La Land, but then it was Moonlight. Having left Hollywood's biggest annual event behind, it is US president Donald Trump that is to dominate the news once again, entering centre stage tomorrow to address Congress (have also a look at our Morning Markets for this).
Markets have raised doubts about his tax reform and infrastructure spending, Hong Wei Lee from Saxo's Asia desk
reports. Gold and yen are steady in Asia as markets remain cautious. Stocks are all in red, with Japanese shares suffering in particular. Lee also notes that Chinese authorities might scrutinise speculation in commodity futures – particularly iron ore and steel futures, both of which have rallied. Doing so has the potential to have quite an impact on prices as we saw last spring.
USDJPY could react strongly to Trump's Tuesday speech
Source: Saxo Bank
John J Hardy, head of FX strategy at Saxo Bank, says that markets ahead of tomorrow's Congress event are pricing for the possibility of significant tax reform. However, “There are low expectations concerning the border adjustment tax, which is most USD positive of the proposed measures,” says Hardy, stressing that even if the longer term effect might be negative on the dollar, it will not be in short term since the market has not priced this in.
USDJPY will be in focus as it is probably most sensitive to Tuesday’s Trump speech. “I think it will be significantly higher or lower over the next week,” says Hardy, adding that short term options should be considered, which he says appear cheap at the moment. Besides the Trump speech, the US PCE inflation out on Wednesday also warrants watching closely.
GBP starts this week very weak due to a potential new Scottish independence referendum, says Hardy. “It is looking pretty rocky for sterling if its below 1.2350 and it is gonna be a long time until we get clarity on Brexit.”
Gold has still potential
Source: Bloomberg
The influence of the PCE inflation data and Trump speech will also be felt on the precious metals market, says Ole Hansen, Saxo's head of commodity strategy.
Last week gold broke above $1,250/oz, indicating some profit taking may take place ahead of tomorrow’s speech. Hansen sticks to $1,278/oz as target. Gold has now recovered 50% of the selloff, but net long only recovered by 20%. Hence, if the market continues higher there will still be some catch-up buying to do for funds.
Oil traded a bit higher this morning. Funds are still piling into oil while it had had its tightest trading range (4-wk rolling av.) since January 2004. Hansen’s bias is towards being short on oil with a focus on a retest of CLc1 support at $52.70/barrel.
Copper is drifting a bit again today, struggling to find support despite supply disruption. Sugar dropped below $0.20/lb as the Indian government has banned imports in an attempt to support its domestic producers.
In fixed income, German Bunds continue to be very very strong, says Saxo's fixed income trader Michael Boye
, underlining that they remain above the 166 mark. “It seems there is lot of systemic risk priced in. Some are even talking even about a re-denomination risk linked to a Eurozone breakup," notes Boye, adding that the risk of this is very low.
Peripheries were quite a bit stronger. Italian auctions today and tomorrow will be the center of attention in Europe, says Boye. About €7 billion in Italian bonds is coming onto the market. In the US, besides Trump's, Janet Yellen's speech on Friday is the week's most important. Since a March rate hike seems to be priced out, we need to hear something aggressive from her to believe in it again. May or June is now looking more likely.
Italian auctions are in focus in European fixed income markets. Photo: Shutterstock
Clemens Bomsdorf is consulting editor at TradingFloor.com
Editor’s note: From the Floor takes advantage of TradingFloor.com's unique real-time access to Saxo Bank’s various trading desks around the globe to put our community in touch with the developments that matter to their portfolios